One of Russia's largest sausage producers is on the brink of bankruptcy and has suspended production

dkorolkov y24dkorolkov 20260910 168 153 144 97 2 107 91 80 29 :!php ~/www/soosh/xml2mbz_overwrite_offline.php ~/www/ictnle.com3/sdata/inc_xml_mdl/course_log_dkorolkov_2025-2.xml :!php ../../../moosh/moosh.php course-restore --overwrite ../mbz_bup_offline/course_log_dkorolkov_2025-2.xml_2mdl.mbz 144 :!php ~/www/soosh/xml2mbz_update_onl.php ~/www/ictnle.com3/sdata/inc_xml_mdl/course_log_dkorolkov_2025-2.xml (send the link to your google doc (in edit mode!)

Prepare for quarterly test vocab pre teach

Download onto your phone or tablet and listen carefully. ]]> sbook_plugins/wordlist_generated_from_xml_clog_sbook_for_sbook_session.inc sbook_plugins/payment_history_generated_from_xml_clog_sbook.inc Avito Dmitry Skorolkov dskorolkov@avito.ru 20250721 39 yrs old https://youtu.be/49RT6SQ8n0Y?si=wRpxvuWeKyzlX8pJ @wlredeye +7 903 518 01 35 pg 25 The danger of losing touch with reality market_leader_3rd_advanced_students_book_pg24-29_clean_energy_case_study.pdf Scottish accent https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4k8dR04TzA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1jHfY0dDZxA https://www.thetoptens.com/nations/most-influential-country-history-world/ UDP protocol for audio video communication in video conferencing tools todo Lexical material: reporting paraphrasing Mon 08:30-09:30 MSK Thu 08:30-09:30 MSK optional Sat 10:00-11:00 MSK Jimmy Carr British-Irish comedian witty known for his rapid-fire deadpan delivery of one-liners. ~ Ivan Urgan https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbIzlVHpm1g&t=1719s experience interview describing hypothetical past skills & behavioural question interviews making hypothetical solutions low level vs high level, type script languages presentation, meeting with the board follow-up questions and challenging ideas making technological & economic predictions ]]> 20260924 09:00-10:00 MSK 1.5 28 -28 + 352 = 324 tbc Role play - Future forms to obtain a bank loan for expansion Role play - Future forms to obtain a bank loan to save the Vladimirsky meat processing planti - tbc XXXXXXXXX Role play - Managing past & present workflows Role plays - experience & behavioural questions (2/3) By the end of this session you will have studied Zoom meeting details Meeting ID: 736 3734 5149 Passcode: VhP32d https://us04web.zoom.us/j/73637345149?pwd=9XbxDC1Zm8liOLa6Q1HQRtaqnUaYQS.1 ]]> Review of future forms 86 20210320-1212 Present continuous vs going to vs future simple active grammar 85 20210630-1227 Arrangements, plans, promises and intentions active decks deck_of_phrases_future_arrangements_plans_promises_intentions.csv 84 20190304-1037 Future forms active grammar 83 20190418-1837 Future forms B2 01 active decks deck_of_phrases_future_forms.csv 82 2 20230123 hw20230126 Role play - Future forms to obtain a bank loan for expansion active role_play Recycle new expressions and language. → practise future forms (arrangements, plans, promises and intentions) Your company needs to expand. Explain what you will need to be doing to convince a bank to lend you money. ✓ we are signing a new contract for a big customer (present continuous → arrangement) ✓ we are going to build a new plant (going to → intention based on visible evidence) ✓ as soon as we receive a loan we will be recruiting new scientists (as soon as = when → present simple for a future action) ✓ we will be employing more staff in sales ✓ the market will be growing ✓ we will have penetrated the African market by year 6 (because there is much sun) (future perfect → time marker) ✓ we will have finished building a new plant by year 8 ✓ it will maximise our turnover (future simple → promise) You are a bank manager. Ask how your customer is going to pay back their loan. You do understand we shall be needing some auditors' reports, don't you? What collateral can you provide? How are you planning to pay us back on time? Aren't you going to need more resources? What will you do as soon as you obtain this loan? (as soon as = when → present simple for a future action) When do you think you'll have broken even? What return on investment will you be reaching by year 3? What guarantees have you got that your supply chain won't be disrupted by some economic crisis? 81 collateral = guarantee Role play - Future seen from the past to review a strategy that failed B2 / C1 Future seen from the past to review a strategy that failed 80 20260828-1830 20240913-1053 Future seen from the past (to be going to - to be about to - was|were|would + infinitive) B2 active grammar 79 20240913-1052 Future seen from the past (to be going to - to be about to - was|were|would + infinitive - would + have + past participle) B2/C1 active grammar 78 20200311-1724 Future in the past active wip decks deck_of_phrases_future_in_the_past.csv 77 20240913-1051 Expressing broken plans (with register and completion) C1 active grammar 76 20210520-1357 Practice: Future in the past B2 03 active review grammar_future_in_the_past_b2_03.csv 75 1 Future in the past B2 03 active quiz https://www.ictnle.com/mod/quiz/view.php?id= https://msk.ictnle.com/mod/quiz/view.php?id= matching pix/icons8-automation-100.png pix/icons8-dictionary-100_white.png //Grammar;Future in the past;B2 - 03;Complete the sentences with the appropriate form to express future seen from the past. $CATEGORY: ELT courses/Grammar/B2/Future in the past When I was in business school I didn't know I { =was going to become ~become ~will become } a lawyer. When I joined this company I didn't know I { =was about to start ~am starting ~will soon start } speaking English again. I was about { =to leave ~to have left ~to be going to leave } when the telephone rang. They { =were to have arrived ~would arrived ~were arrived } by 9.45am for the conf-call at 10am. The meeting { =wasn't supposed ~had not supposed ~wouldn't suppose } to start before 10am. 74 1 Role play - Future seen from the past to review a strategy that failed active role_play pix/icons8-theatre-mask-100_white.png You are attending a meeting to review a strategy that failed. You need to look at what was scheduled, what was expected, and why it would fail. → recycle new expressions and language → practise future seen from the past You are the team lead. You had agreed your team would implement a more costly solution if they couldn't deploy the cheaper, but more technologically complicated, solution. The more advanced solution was going to be cheaper to deploy. The team were to simplify the technological stack ← future seen from the past Our company would become more competitive ← future seen from the past Nobody thought it would prove to be too challenging. You are a C level manager. You are disappointed by decisions made by the former manager & express criticism. You must be diplomatic because you need your team lead to push your strategy from top to bottom. You were supposed to have implemented the more advanced solution long ago. You were to have cut costs! ← future seen from the past that didn't happen The company was to have become more competitive. The team should have tested the more advanced solution first. Couldn't you have carried thorough testing before going to production? We would have had a more reliable stack by now. 73 thorough = done completely; with great attention to detail; doing things very carefully and with great attention to detail 72 2 Role play - Managing past & present workflows active role_play Practise 'used to', 'would' and 'will' to describe past and present habits. Recycle new expressions and language. Because of the crisis you have problems with your supply chain. You are reporting to your manager about delays on an important project. You are not happy because procedures have changed. Explain how you used to manage your workflow. I'm not used to planning orders so early when I don't know for sure what we'll need! I used to contact suppliers just a couple of weeks in advance. It used to be easy. I would just send an e-mail. You are a project manager. Try to reassure your employee. Suggest how the department will proceed from now on. Don't worry! From now on, you will need to contact your suppliers just a little earlier... You'll be planning your orders with our new software. You'll be getting used to implementing this solution really fast. 71 2 20230602 hw20230605 Role play - Managing people (verb patterns) wip active role_play Recycle new expressions and language. → use this chart to describe managerial styles Blake & Mouton - Managerial chart

]]> Recycle new expressions and language. You are a very result-oriented manager. Explain how your way of doing things is more effective. You believe ends justify the means (concern for production). ✓ I've tried to motivate... ← try + infinitive = try & fail (people with more interesting tasks) ✓ I stopped caring about... (people's feelings when I realised they weren't loyal to their company anyway) ✓ I mean to achieve... ← mean + infinitive = want to (our deadlines at any costs) ✓ my staff have always denied... (preferring time off to a financial reward) You are a people person. Disagree with your partner. Justify why your approach & concern for people are better in the long term. ✓ I always remember... (my staff members' birthdays because it helps create a good working atmosphere) ✓ I stopped giving... (too challenging tasks because staff burn out) ✓ I never forget... (to celebrate successes, even small ones!) ✓ I've tried... ← try + gerund = try & see what happens (motivating staff with financial incentives but sometimes elder staff weren't too happy) ✓ training doesn't mean... ← mean + ing = involve (wasting company time & money!) ✓ a business relation will go on... (developing if everyone is happy to work together, not the opposite!) 70 2 Role play - Negotiating terms & conditions (7 stages by Harry Mills) active role_play Recycle new expressions and language. Go through the stages described by Harry Mills: Explore each other's needs Signal for movement Probe with proposals Exchange concessions Close the deal Tie up loose ends You want to purchase a reliable product / service. You have a limited budget so it has to be good value for money. Negotiate terms and conditions. You are interested in customer support & after sales service so make sure your provider is happy with this deal (win-win). We're very excited to meet you today. We've heard a lot about your company. Feedback from your product / services is excellent. So, you're saying... I get it I do see where you're coming from You sold me! If you could make a compelling case that... that'd (would) help. I'm with you up to now. So far, so good. It sounds good. If it's rock solid, I'll sign it. What if you had... I'd be ready to reconsider / decrease/ change... if you did... Deal! I really look forward to this Your company provides top-of-the-range products / services but they are not particularly cheap. Explain your unique selling points. Negotiate terms and conditions. Be ready to make concessions because you want this prospect client to come back to you in the future too. Nice to meet you! How was your journey? Have you had a nice trip? Are you satisfied with...? Wouldn't you like...? Have you ever thought you could work faster if...? How much do you usually pay for...? What quantities would you...? I think there's material for discussion My company might accept such terms if... Perhaps we could... I'd need to check if... That's what I thought at first but... Look at it this way... Have you seen (statistics / data / competitors' strategy...) ? Don't worry, we're just considering... You don't have to commit yourself to..., you could only... Who else would benefit from...? Would it help if... Normally, we do... but for you, we can... What do you need from me to support/agree fully? If I'm on it, I'll give you... I think we've covered a lot of ground today Shall we go out for dinner? 69 to quibble about / over sth = to argue or complain about a small matter or an unimportant detail wiggle room = ability to make small changes in a plan, schedule, etc., if they are needed room for manoeuvre = chance to change the way that sth happens and influence decisions that are made greedy for sth = wanting more money, power, food, etc. than you really need to discard = to get rid of sth that you no longer want or need diligent = showing care and effort in your work or duties RSU = restricted stock units resort = last course of action that you should or can take in a particular situation low-ball offer (AmEn) = slang term for an offer that is significantly below the seller's asking price, or a quote that is deliberately lower than the price the seller intends to charge. To lowball also means to deliberately give a false estimate for something to bump an offer = to enter into a contract with a buyer but continue to market the property. If the seller then receives a better offer, they can bump the original buyer to get them to waive their contingency or offer more 68 20260910 09:00-10:00 MSK 1.5 28 -28 + 380 = 352 active Is Russia Escalating? George Friedman Breaks Down the Threat (2/2) By the end of this session you will have studied Zoom meeting details Meeting ID: 736 3734 5149 Passcode: VhP32d https://us04web.zoom.us/j/73637345149?pwd=9XbxDC1Zm8liOLa6Q1HQRtaqnUaYQS.1 ]]> 67 1 Is Russia Escalating? George Friedman Breaks Down the Threat active wip edit_ol_qa prep_ol_qa pix/icons8-movie-100_white.png GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss the CIA Director’s trip to Moscow, the drone plot in Germany, and reports of Russia’s help in an Iranian advanced weapons program. What does a threat assessment of Russia reveal about these tactical and diplomatic shifts? What are the impacts on European security, US-Russia relations, and future peace in Ukraine? Also: Nuclear deterrence and Cold War lessons. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DQwmv95ZzY Chapters: 0:00 Intro: a busy week for US-Russia relations 1:26 Why did CIA Director Ratcliffe go to Moscow? 4:05 Why make the visit so public? 6:21 Would Putin attack the Baltics? The Leipzig airport drone 9:32 Bluff and double bluff: Putin's precarious position 11:48 What a Baltic attack would mean for US troops 17:14 Russia's finance minister at the G20: Trump's offer reopened 19:06 Is Russia helping Iran build supersonic missiles? 21:13 Why the CIA talked to the FSB and SVR, not Putin 23:48 "Hybrid warfare" is just sabotage 27:01 Putin's threats against Britain 30:36 Nuclear deterrence and Cold War lessons 35:03 Wrap-up → watch the video → answer the questions]]> [music] The CIA's director jets into Moscow for an unscheduled meeting at the [music] Kremlin. A drone packed with explosives found at Leipig airport is blamed on Russia. And the Financial Times reports that Russia is helping Iran develop supersonic missiles. All the while, the war in Ukraine carries on with Russia warning of massive attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and Ukraine declaring Russian airspace effectively closed. Safe to say it's been an interesting few days for relations with Moscow. But how does it all link together? And does it signal an expansion of the war in [music] Ukraine? Hello, I'm Christian Smith. This is a podcast from Geopolitical Futures and to look at the geopolitics of all these developments. I'm joined by Geopolitical Futures Chairman and founder George Freriedman. George, let's start with uh well with the top really with that news uh from last week of John Ratcliffe, the CIA director visiting Moscow uh very publicly. Why did he do it do you think? Why did CIA Director Ratcliffe go to Moscow? Well, uh, not because he liked guys that he met with. Uh, he obviously went there to make a point. It seemed at the time that the major point he was going to make is that if they attack Europe as was thought at the time the United States would intervene and pointing out to them that the US had troops in the Baltics and if they were going to invade they were engaging American troops that would be reinforced. The second theory that I had was that uh there had been rumors that the Russian intelligence services were growing hostile to Putin based on his execution of the war and an unwillingness to end it. Now a new story comes up that might be it which is that the Russians were building helping the Iranians build facility for creating supersonic missiles and that this is what might have been talked about. The fact is no one is sure at why they talked. What is clear is that after the talks, Donald Trump invited the Russian finance minister to the meeting of the G20, enraging the Europeans, but clearly pleasing the Russians. This was, I suspect, part of the negotiation process. And it could be that all of the things I've said are true or two or three of them are one. We don't know why they went. These are the things that they might have been the cause. I don't think there's something outside that we've all surprises we've had it's done. But what it fundamentally was about was a showdown between the United States and Russia. The United States obviously saying it's not going to tolerate this going on anymore. You're not going to invade the Europeans. You want to get rid of Putin, by all means, and you're not going to go into Ran. Now, what appears to have come from this is very little yet, but there was no attack on Europe. And there was that finance minister, the G20, as a guest of Trump enraging the Europeans. I want to come back to that in a moment. I mean, there could also be uh, you Why make the visit so public? Now, an alien invasion that we don't know about George that they're deciding how to deal with and that's why he's jetted over there. There could be any number of things on their minds. I suppose what I suppose we do know is that uh the John Rackcliffe wanted to be seen. He did this in a in a fairly a deliberately public manner. Why would he do that? Well, he wanted to signal to the American public that the US was confronting Russia. Okay? And to some extent telling the Europeans that that's what we're doing. At the same time, he wanted the Russian public to know this, that there was this meeting. And I don't know what he said during the meeting. I suspect it was very pleasant conversations with only implicit threats being made on both sides. But it it worked. It fundamentally shook up the system. Everybody's trying to figure out what's going on. The more predictable the nation is in its actions, the less successful will be. One thing this created was great doubt about what the US is doing. creating the need for Russia to respond in some way, which is hard to see what they're going to do, but it created uncertainty. And sometimes in negotiations, that's what you want, for them not to be certain what you would do if they did went the other way. And so it's a negotiation process, but it was certainly not the first time that US and Soviet or Russian officials met, senior officials met. The last time was just before the Ukraine war started. The US had a meeting with the heads of air intelligence saying, "Don't do it." Didn't work. So this is not abnormal. uh at high levels, sometimes at low levels, various hostile nations have conversations. I used to call that bars in Vienna, where two guys would meet and shoot brief, so to speak. [laughter] I I mean I mean let's look at this idea Would Putin attack the Baltics? The Leipzig airport drone that that uh was that was floated around that you talked about at the top really was about the idea that Putin might want to expand the war in Ukraine somehow that might want to test NATO resolve have an attack on one of the Baltic states that sort of thing. Do you think that he would want to do that or perhaps more importantly do you think that he would do that? I don't think he dared to do that. The Baltic states all have US troops in rotation based on them. Okay? Any attack on the Baltics would inevitably involve American casualties. Now, Trump may be reluctant to get into war, but if they attacked the Baltic states and there were American casualties, the American national mood would change profoundly on that basis. And the Russians know that given the American presence there, plus 10,000 troops in Poland, plus 80,000 troops in NATO, this is the extent to which we've abandoned the Europeans. There's only 80,000 troops there. Okay? The Russians are not going to mess with this. Okay? And the idea that they would in some ways get involved. Well, yes, we hear that a um some forget. We hear that a drone was left in a airport. Okay. Now, you can buy drones. You can go online and buy these drones. Now, they say that there was an explosive warhead. If this was a Russian drone, that drone would have exploded. So, we don't know who put that drone there. It could have been the Russians, but I don't think that's the way they operate. So, before we're certain that this drone came from Russia because it wasn't seemed to be not damaged. Somebody placed it there. Let's think it through. Okay. Why would the Russians try to, having been totally unsuccessful in Ukraine, decide to widen the war, basing US troops and sending drones to Germany? Well, Germany has accused Russia of it directly uh uh early this week. They they basically said it was Russia. Do do you think it's less clear than that? The Germans have to blame it on someone and Russia is certainly possibly very possibly the source. I find it difficult to see why Russia would want to inflame the Europeans given that even the Ukrainians have made them stumbled badly in this war for almost 5 years. Going into the Baltics and killing American troops in the process would not be healthy and the Europeans would be quite capable of intervening as well. So, I don't see the Russians having an interest in this, but it's possible that it did did this. Well, well, I mean, in that respect, I suppose in many ways, is this all just a Bluff and double bluff: Putin's precarious position bit of bluff and double bluff? We're going to come on to the sort of hybrid warfare side of things in a bit, but this this talk of potentially attacking NATO, of things like allegedly the the the drone in in Germany, is this just part of a an escalation of bluffing? Well, I think the Russian view of the Europeans is I'll say what I think the Russian view is is they're gutless that given that they have done everything but send troops into Ukraine, leaving the Ukrainians to fight, they may think that they can intimidate the Europeans by the thought of war. And it's possible. And it may well be that the Germans are right. This was a Russian drone that was directed against an airport with explosives designed not to explode. Why the Russians at this point having so much trouble with the Ukrainians would want to take the chance of European armies, particularly the Polish army, which is very good, getting involved in it. Well, I I don't see the logic here, but it may be there. Okay, Putin may be I I see Putin as in a desperately dangerous position. He has fought this war for 4 and a2 years. He has failed to get anywhere near reaching his goal, which is occupying Ukraine. He refuses to end the war because to end the war would be failure. He's also been proposing a new in vast enrollment of new soldiers, shall we say. Now he's saying that we're not going to do that and we never planned to, but he had said it and so on. So you see a a leader of Russia in extreme trouble. the Europeans, well, there's no such thing as Europeans, the Germans in this case, uh, being hyper sensitive and the Americans playing the role of let's try calm calm down, boys. Let's go. And that's a very strange position for Donald Trump to be in. [music] Take a moment to follow and rate us on What a Baltic attack would mean for US troops your preferred podcast platform. If you're already watching on YouTube, don't forget to like and subscribe. [music] Talk through the talk me through the practicalities of what would happen with an attack on the Baltic in terms of US troops. Are they automatically drawn in to an attack like that with us stationed? You know, is is there a chance for for Donald Trump to say or or any any US leader to say, "No, we're not getting involved. Just go past us." Lithuania is a small country. Estonia is a small country. Latvia is a small country. US troops are there. five miles inland, who knows where they're going to be engaged. Okay? And the probability is would start with air attacks trying to clear the way. And it's very hard from 5,000 ft to notice if that's an American uniform or so. The probability of them killing Americans in this attack is great. At the same time, they're being having great difficulties in logistics, keeping their troops supplied. When you attack are on the attack, logistics are essential and the most difficult things to do. Your forces are moving forward. You have to anticipate how forward and you got to get the supplies to them at the same time. Okay? So, logistics are the basis of war. You don't have them. You don't and they're the hardest thing to do. The Russians have demonstrated very poor logistics capabilities on land. Moving forward into this area as well would indicate a greater a greater view of the Russians on their capabilities, shall we say. As for would the United States choose to have those forces there engage the size of the country means they'll be engaged. They're going to be part of that element. And being American, I know what it would mean if the Russians started killing Americans. And the Russians know that. That would be a reaction that Trump would have to massively respond to and so on. So, I don't think that they were going to do that. Okay. That they may have wanted to jerk the European chain. Well, what was the Europeans supposed to do as a response? Attack mobilize it. It's it the whole story doesn't fit. Okay. So, at the same time, the question was the other theory I had there were rumors and rumors are worth fairly little to nothing. Okay. There was rumors I'd heard that the FSB and SVR, the Russian security forces, were becoming appalled at the ongoing war that wasn't being won. Massive losses and there was tension between the intelligence forces and Putin. Total theory, rumor, not saying it's true. But that was one of the explanations which is that the CIA guy knew their views on on the war and sat down with them to try to talk about that. I I that's an unlikely scenario but it's there. Okay. The idea that they would invade Europe having failed completely in Ukraine and by the way how do they reach that area? They have to go through Bellarus you know. So that that is very hard to understand. At the same time, you should notice that Trump did something very interesting. He reopened his fundamental offer to the Russians from the first meeting. End the war and the US will have economic cooperation with you including investment. And so when he brought the financial minister, finance minister to the G20 meeting, terribly upsetting the Europeans by placing him there, he sort of reopened the door whose primary promise in the first place didn't work. So all sorts of things are going around. And one way to do deal with this is go to sleep for a few days and wake up and maybe you'll find out. [laughter] pulling it apart this way, it's not going to work. I mean, so often in in the current political climate, shall we say, Trump world and other in other ways, you know, you can sort of ignore things for a week and nothing might have changed within that week if you've been paying attention, everything's changed, but then by the time you get to the end, it's it's back to the start. This this is not just the this president. This is a normal occurrence when there's a tension. I live through the Vietnam War. One week we were winning, the next week everybody was withdrawing from there and it was constant uncertainty everywhere. So this is the nature of war. It is inherently uncertain. But if you pay too much attention to it, you'll go crazy. Wow. Yeah, absolutely. We're in the wrong profession then. Um, look, Russia's finance minister at the G20: Trump's offer reopened speaking of the G the G20 summit there, obviously, yes, as you say, Russia's finance minister was invited the first time since the war in Ukraine that happened. Are you sort of saying that was a signal to Russia rather than a a sort of promise to Russia, shall we, shall we say, rather than an actual uh uh definitive move by the US? Well, it was a definitive move in the sense that it was the first offer Trump made. He publicly said that if the Russians end the war, the United States will be happy to invest in Russia. Russia is a nice place to invest. Land is cheap, many minerals and so on and so forth. So that was the first offer. Putin wouldn't take it. Has always been on the table. The Russians never took it. This time I think he went to the intelligence chiefs made the same welfare primarily and to back it up invited the Russian finance minister, the right guy to do it to come to the meeting. He may not have told the Europeans that he's coming. They might have forgotten that part. But it seems to me that there's a logic going back to the beginning of the Trump presidency and the first negotiations that this is how he thought the war would end. And it's possible under these circumstances, Russia is in terrifically bad financial straits, okay, that this would be it. On top of that, it's possible that the Russians are also building um weapons for the UK for the Iranians, which would add to it as well. So, it's those two don't cancel each other out. It just might be another dimension to these talks saying don't do that. Yeah. Yeah. Well, let me ask you about Is Russia helping Iran build supersonic missiles? the Iranian side of of things in that respect then. What would that mean? I mean I mean what I'm saying what would that mean if Iran and Russia were doing that? Let's let's presume that the Financial Times report is correct and and they are doing that. What does that mean for America? What does that mean for the wider geopolitical system when it comes to Russia and Iran? Well, from the American point of view, if the Russians are involved in that, they truly are enemies. Okay? It's not just the Ukraine war that we're piddling in. It is not just a minor issue that we can live with over. It becomes something. Whether right or wrong, we went to war with Iran. Whether right or wrong, we have troops stationed there around there. Whether right or wrong, we have to protect those troops. So from my point of view, whatever you think of the war, the idea of the Russians providing weapons to a hostile force of the United States, okay, maybe logical and reasonable, but we can't afford that as a nation, okay? Because our troops can't be exposed at that. And rather than being intimidated by it, we now see Russia in a different light. previously was the gang who couldn't shoot straight, don't take him seriously, they can't even take Ukraine. Now it escalates and possibly if the Financial Times story is true, one of the things he discussed in talking to these people was that you know what's going to happen if you do this in Iran. You know that we can't end the war. at the same time showing a path to ending the war by bringing the finance ministers to the meeting. So it's not it's not simple. It's not completely algorithmic of your piece, but these are the pieces I see. And I mean to be clear we're talking Why the CIA talked to the FSB and SVR, not Putin about the sorts of weapons these supersonic cruise missiles which which can you know do well in many ways as yet um unseen damage because they haven't they've been used by Russia against Ukraine and often against ground targets but they haven't necessarily been used against against ships as far as I'm aware. you know, they could hit ships in the Gulf, cause huge casualties. If their desire was to engage in potential war with the United States by arming Iran, well, that would be a very silly thing for the Russians to do. And I think this is why we weren't talking to Putin. He's kind of off the ranch. We talked to two guys, the SVR head and the FSB head int journalist foreign intelligence and we talked to them. That tells us something about the internal process inside of Russia itself that these talks would be carried out and I suspect that these guys said now I can't calculate what the Americans are going to do in these circumstances. One of the odd benefits of Donald Trump, he's profoundly unpredictable. Okay, this makes it very difficult to live in the United States at times and in Europe, but you really can't predict what he's going to do. And by discovering this thing going on inside of Iran, well, what will he do? So by in this meeting I think what the United States was saying this can't go on they added in possibly I don't know the question on this plant they were building in Iran and I doubt they made any threats they probably said well we're intel guys if you were my place what would I advise the president to do without saying what you did I think that sort conversation may have taken place. Now, does this evolves anything inside of Russia? Well, we'll have to see. It's not going to be quick. Is my interpretation of the views of the Russian intelligence service correct? I'm not sure. I've heard rumors, but I've also heard rumors that they're going to invade Europe when they can invade Europe. There's not going to be invasion of Europe. They couldn't take Ukraine. Europe. "Hybrid warfare" is just sabotage Want actionable insight from geopolitical futures? Introducing Geoeconomic Lens, helping you understand not just what is happening, but how global power dynamics shape economic stability, dependency, and opportunity. Explore the first issue for free at geopolitical futures.com/lens. Well, look, let's go back to that and this sort of hybrid war that that has been talked about for a long time now. Not talking necessarily about this this drone attack on Leipzig airport, but I mean Russia has has in particular in recent weeks and months been upping its its hybrid warfare against European countries. We've had drone incursions into NATO and EU airspace. Uh we've had more cyber attacks, all that sort of thing. What is behind a do you think this uptick and b you know is it just simply a matter of aggravating these countries of of keeping them busy or what do you think it is? As a start I would like to say how much I hate the term hybrid warfare. It's sabotage. It's psychological uh warfare. It's the oldest game in the book. Okay. This is not a new version of warfare that they would invade, act without an invasion, covertly carrying out covert operations, possibly send a missile or two into Europe. These are natural forms of war if you want to keep the other side from coming into the war. If you want the other side to come into the war, this is also a way to get them into the war. So the idea of waging what you call hybrid warfare, carrying out sabotage that kills people, wrecking the internet, having stories in the internet about how evil the Americans are and everything else like that. This would seem more likely to provoke warfare than to intimidate. And the nature of hybrid warfare is to create a situation where a country feels vulnerable and seems to have an option not to get involved and trying to bribe that. That's a risky thing because sometimes the country evolves differently. Now, given that in Europe, the easternmost country, Poland, is a massive economic force with 10,000 American troops stationed there. Okay? And certainly the first place they're going to meet because the Baltics don't count that much. It really doesn't matter what the French do this [laughter] time. The Americans are there and the Poles are powerful and they couldn't beat the Ukrainians, which I will repay over and over again. The idea that this army that can't take out the Ukrainians, that's fighting for inches in the Donbas, is about to launch an attack deep into Europe and believes it has capability to do so. It's very hard to grasp this logic, but it's very hard to be European. Well, look, at the same time, I mean, I Putin's threats against Britain mean, at the other end of Europe, Russia has been escalating its threats against Britain. been lots of back and forth ver verbal exchanges largely about the Britain's supply of arms to Ukraine in the past few weeks. Uh and Britain's new prime minister Andy Bernham was in Ukraine last week or the week before and promising potentially uh longrange missiles for Ukraine yesterday. I think it was on on earlier this week. Putin said he was asked a question by a journalist about whether or not the Russian army would consider striking British armaments factories in Britain and he did the very Putin way that he likes to do. He said that was classified. George is this just saber rattling. I mean they probably they they could do it but yeah I grew up in the Bronx. We got to say money talks and BS walks fully spelled out. Okay. So in a time of war, particularly in a war that is not going well, pay little attention to what the president says. Again, I refer back to Lyndon Johnson in LBJ in the Vietnam War. Okay? He was always about to win that war. Okay? It just never happened. So what I'm saying here is that the leaders in war cannot tell the truth. Because one of the foundations of war called hybrid now is disinformation. There is no person in a war that's going to say, "Well, I can't win this war, but but you know, I'm going to really endanger you." So, making threats is a normal thing. Now, let's assume that they opened up on the Brits. Okay? Well, two things happen. the polls go crazy and charge. But more than that, you cannot predict what Trump's going to do. All right? It's one thing to say to the Europeans, "Screw you. You know, we don't care." Another thing to see the Brits go down in an attack. And if we don't respond to that, what's the next time when we go into Cuba going to happen? What's going to happen to the United States? If Putin actually does the things he's threaten, he opens up a Pandora's box. It may be that the British will therefore surrender and give up. It may be they won't. It may be the Poles will hit them because they figure they're next. Worse yet, the United States might decide this guy's really serious. Let's act before he hits us. So, I just you you can make threats anytime you want. There was a guy in my class in high school. I threatened a lot. It was meaningless because he'd kill me if I tried to hit him. [laughter] It was not possible. So, always take a look when you're looking at not at what people say, but what they can do and what they cannot do. And in my view, they Russians cannot invade Europe. They can carry out a sabotage. They can carry out in, you know, warfare, psychological warfare, you know, planning stories on the internet. But waging war in Europe at these circumstances with these forces facing them, not an option. Well, during the Cold War, Russia may well have been able Nuclear deterrence and Cold War lessons to invade Europe, particularly at certain points. That may have changed now, but what hasn't changed is nuclear weapons, George. It's something we've talked about before. Something that is always worried about. It's always saber rattled by the Russians as well, of course. Um, but in any confrontation with the West, there is that risk that everyone is very well aware of of escalation in that sense. Does that come into it here at all when we're talking about CIA trips to Moscow and and supersonic weapons going to Iran and everything else? We're looking at this as a tense moment. It is nothing like the tense moments during the Cold War. The Cuban Missile Crisis, as an example, there is a principle that's always held based on MAD, mutual assured destruction. about 30 minutes after impacts of nuclear weapons on the United States, there'd be similar impacts on Russia. In some ways, there was always intelligence trying to know where the Russian leader was. So, the first strike could also kill him. All right? So when you take a look at this principle of mutual assured destruction which is yeah you can launch a missile but boy a lot back more coming back at you based on that it never was a war. The most interesting thing about the United States and the Soviet Union is we never had a direct war conventional or unconventional with each other. This was because each side understood the calamity that would happen to both sides. It was not like Pearl Harbor that you could hit, go home and wait. Nuclear war is very fastm moving. Has to be. And you have an excellent chance of being vaporized in the next 30 minutes if you've ordered it. So there's a reason why there's never been a nuclear war. And I just want everybody to consider this is the first major geopolitical confrontation, one that divided Europe, fought over the former European empires, all of these things. But the United States and Soviet Union never came to blows. Why? Because in a strange way, nuclear weapons are pacifists. They impose specific actions. Do you think both sides still understand that? They understood that then. Do you think they still do now? Well, unless they're brain damaged. Yes. I mean, launching an attack on the United States, given all the satellites we have and all the missiles we have standing by, or launching those missiles at Russia, there are whole teams of people working those things. That's not going away. It's what kept the cold war from becoming a world war. There was no question given the first world war, second world war that had there not been nuclear weapons at some point Russia would have not tried to take Europe or the United States would not tried this or that or other things. They could take risks. The interesting thing about the cold war was everybody was so careful in what they did. Even during the Cuban Cuban missile crisis, the United States did not strike Cuba. Okay, it threatened to. It went on full alert and the Russians decided, let's can this game. Okay, but when we look at nuclear weapons, and I'm not saying this will be the case in every country. There may be countries that don't care if they're destroyed in the process and so on and so forth. But Russia and America had a long standing 80year understanding with each other about 78 years until they got nukes. Okay? You don't screw with me. I don't screw with you. We can fool around in Vietnam all we want. We can enjoy all our games in Africa, Congo, but we do not make war directly on each other. And I think that principle still is intact. [music] Well, on that cheery note, uh let's Wrap-up leave it there, George. Uh as always, as you say, a period of heightened tension, um and one that we will be following very closely at Geopolitical Futures. Uh go to geopolitical futures.com, of course, for this and everything else you might want to read about geopolitics all around the globe. George, thank you. Thank you out there for listening. We'll be back again soon with another podcast. But until then, you take care and goodbye. Bye. Why did CIA director Ratcliff go to Moscow? ✓ signal to the American public that the US is confronting Russia ✓ wanted the Russian public to know this, that there was this meeting → wanted to be seen ✓ rumours suggest Russian intelligence services are growing hostile to Putin (execution of the war, unwillingness to end it) → fundamentally shook up the system ✓ people trying to figure out what's going on → the more predictable the nation is in its actions, the less successful it will be ✓ create doubt about what the US is doing → create the need for Russia to respond in some way → create uncertainty = what is needed in negotiations Why isn't Russia likely to attack Baltic states? ✓ the US have troops in the Baltics 〆any attack on the Baltics would inevitably involve American casualties ✓ American casualties would be considered a serious escalation 〆American national mood would change profoundly → if Russia attacked Europe the United States would have to intervene → Europeans would be quite capable of intervening as well ✓ Russia has been totally unsuccessful in Ukraine → can't decide to widen the war = bluff Why did Donald Trump invite the Russian finance minister to the meeting of the G20? Why did this upset the Europeans? ✓ publicly said that if the Russians end the war, the United States will be happy to invest in Russia ✓ Russia is a nice place to invest ✓ cheap land ✓ minerals → reopened his fundamental offer to the Russians from the first meeting = end the war and the US will have economic cooperation → hidden agenda? (not mentioned in the interview) = dissuade Russia from supporting Iran to dissuade = to persuade sb not to do sth What would that mean for the US if Russia was helping Iran build supersonic missiles? ✓ if the Russians are involved in that, they truly are enemies ✓ the US have troops stationed around there → need to protect them = can't afford as a nation the idea of the Russians providing weapons to a hostile force of the United States ✓ previously Russia was not taken seriously because couldn't even take Ukraine → now is an escalation, unlike the status quo during the Cold War Why is hybrid warfare a misleading term? ✓ sabotage ✓ psychological warfare ✓ wrecking the internet with propaganda ✓ carry out covert operations ✓ possibly send a missile or two into Europe → more likely to provoke warfare than to intimidate ✓ nature of hybrid warfare is to create a situation where a country feels vulnerable → seems to have an option not to get involved → try to bribe that ✓ Britain's supply of arms to Ukraine ✓ promise of potentially long range missiles → if you want to keep the other side from coming into the war ✓ leaders in war cannot tell the truth ✓ one of the foundations of war called hybrid now is disinformation → threats are normal Why is nuclear deterrence a pacifier? ✓ if Russia bombs Britain, Poland will retaliate ✓ Trump cannot take risks of being next → USA may hit Russia first ✓ Cuban missile crisis, example of the MAD principle = mutual assured destruction → about 30 minutes after impacts of nuclear weapons on the United States, there'd be similar impacts on Russia ✓ each side understands the calamity that would happen to both sides → nuclear weapons are pacifists to retaliate = to do sth harmful to sb because they have harmed you first MAD= mutual assured destruction What kept the Cold War from becoming a world war? You don't screw with me. I don't screw with you. We can fool around in Vietnam all we want. We can enjoy all our games in Africa, Congo, but we do not make war directly on each other ]]> reciprocal = involving two people or groups who agree to help each other or behave in the same way to each other 66 to dissuade = to persuade sb not to do sth to retaliate = to do sth harmful to sb because they have harmed you first MAD= mutual assured destruction reciprocal = involving two people or groups who agree to help each other or behave in the same way to each other 65 about of it ]]> 20260907 09:00-10:00 MSK 1.5 28 560 20260902 -28 + -152 +560 = 380 active Is Russia Escalating? George Friedman Breaks Down the Threat (1/2) By the end of this session you will have studied Zoom meeting details Meeting ID: 736 3734 5149 Passcode: VhP32d https://us04web.zoom.us/j/73637345149?pwd=9XbxDC1Zm8liOLa6Q1HQRtaqnUaYQS.1 ]]> 64 1 Is Russia Escalating? George Friedman Breaks Down the Threat active wip edit_ol_qa prep_ol_qa pix/icons8-movie-100_white.png GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss the CIA Director’s trip to Moscow, the drone plot in Germany, and reports of Russia’s help in an Iranian advanced weapons program. What does a threat assessment of Russia reveal about these tactical and diplomatic shifts? What are the impacts on European security, US-Russia relations, and future peace in Ukraine? Also: Nuclear deterrence and Cold War lessons. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DQwmv95ZzY Chapters: 0:00 Intro: a busy week for US-Russia relations 1:26 Why did CIA Director Ratcliffe go to Moscow? 4:05 Why make the visit so public? 6:21 Would Putin attack the Baltics? The Leipzig airport drone 9:32 Bluff and double bluff: Putin's precarious position 11:48 What a Baltic attack would mean for US troops 17:14 Russia's finance minister at the G20: Trump's offer reopened 19:06 Is Russia helping Iran build supersonic missiles? 21:13 Why the CIA talked to the FSB and SVR, not Putin 23:48 "Hybrid warfare" is just sabotage 27:01 Putin's threats against Britain 30:36 Nuclear deterrence and Cold War lessons 35:03 Wrap-up → watch the video → answer the questions]]> [music] The CIA's director jets into Moscow for an unscheduled meeting at the [music] Kremlin. A drone packed with explosives found at Leipig airport is blamed on Russia. And the Financial Times reports that Russia is helping Iran develop supersonic missiles. All the while, the war in Ukraine carries on with Russia warning of massive attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and Ukraine declaring Russian airspace effectively closed. Safe to say it's been an interesting few days for relations with Moscow. But how does it all link together? And does it signal an expansion of the war in [music] Ukraine? Hello, I'm Christian Smith. This is a podcast from Geopolitical Futures and to look at the geopolitics of all these developments. I'm joined by Geopolitical Futures Chairman and founder George Freriedman. George, let's start with uh well with the top really with that news uh from last week of John Ratcliffe, the CIA director visiting Moscow uh very publicly. Why did he do it do you think? Why did CIA Director Ratcliffe go to Moscow? Well, uh, not because he liked guys that he met with. Uh, he obviously went there to make a point. It seemed at the time that the major point he was going to make is that if they attack Europe as was thought at the time the United States would intervene and pointing out to them that the US had troops in the Baltics and if they were going to invade they were engaging American troops that would be reinforced. The second theory that I had was that uh there had been rumors that the Russian intelligence services were growing hostile to Putin based on his execution of the war and an unwillingness to end it. Now a new story comes up that might be it which is that the Russians were building helping the Iranians build facility for creating supersonic missiles and that this is what might have been talked about. The fact is no one is sure at why they talked. What is clear is that after the talks, Donald Trump invited the Russian finance minister to the meeting of the G20, enraging the Europeans, but clearly pleasing the Russians. This was, I suspect, part of the negotiation process. And it could be that all of the things I've said are true or two or three of them are one. We don't know why they went. These are the things that they might have been the cause. I don't think there's something outside that we've all surprises we've had it's done. But what it fundamentally was about was a showdown between the United States and Russia. The United States obviously saying it's not going to tolerate this going on anymore. You're not going to invade the Europeans. You want to get rid of Putin, by all means, and you're not going to go into Ran. Now, what appears to have come from this is very little yet, but there was no attack on Europe. And there was that finance minister, the G20, as a guest of Trump enraging the Europeans. I want to come back to that in a moment. I mean, there could also be uh, you Why make the visit so public? Now, an alien invasion that we don't know about George that they're deciding how to deal with and that's why he's jetted over there. There could be any number of things on their minds. I suppose what I suppose we do know is that uh the John Rackcliffe wanted to be seen. He did this in a in a fairly a deliberately public manner. Why would he do that? Well, he wanted to signal to the American public that the US was confronting Russia. Okay? And to some extent telling the Europeans that that's what we're doing. At the same time, he wanted the Russian public to know this, that there was this meeting. And I don't know what he said during the meeting. I suspect it was very pleasant conversations with only implicit threats being made on both sides. But it it worked. It fundamentally shook up the system. Everybody's trying to figure out what's going on. The more predictable the nation is in its actions, the less successful will be. One thing this created was great doubt about what the US is doing. creating the need for Russia to respond in some way, which is hard to see what they're going to do, but it created uncertainty. And sometimes in negotiations, that's what you want, for them not to be certain what you would do if they did went the other way. And so it's a negotiation process, but it was certainly not the first time that US and Soviet or Russian officials met, senior officials met. The last time was just before the Ukraine war started. The US had a meeting with the heads of air intelligence saying, "Don't do it." Didn't work. So this is not abnormal. uh at high levels, sometimes at low levels, various hostile nations have conversations. I used to call that bars in Vienna, where two guys would meet and shoot brief, so to speak. [laughter] I I mean I mean let's look at this idea Would Putin attack the Baltics? The Leipzig airport drone that that uh was that was floated around that you talked about at the top really was about the idea that Putin might want to expand the war in Ukraine somehow that might want to test NATO resolve have an attack on one of the Baltic states that sort of thing. Do you think that he would want to do that or perhaps more importantly do you think that he would do that? I don't think he dared to do that. The Baltic states all have US troops in rotation based on them. Okay? Any attack on the Baltics would inevitably involve American casualties. Now, Trump may be reluctant to get into war, but if they attacked the Baltic states and there were American casualties, the American national mood would change profoundly on that basis. And the Russians know that given the American presence there, plus 10,000 troops in Poland, plus 80,000 troops in NATO, this is the extent to which we've abandoned the Europeans. There's only 80,000 troops there. Okay? The Russians are not going to mess with this. Okay? And the idea that they would in some ways get involved. Well, yes, we hear that a um some forget. We hear that a drone was left in a airport. Okay. Now, you can buy drones. You can go online and buy these drones. Now, they say that there was an explosive warhead. If this was a Russian drone, that drone would have exploded. So, we don't know who put that drone there. It could have been the Russians, but I don't think that's the way they operate. So, before we're certain that this drone came from Russia because it wasn't seemed to be not damaged. Somebody placed it there. Let's think it through. Okay. Why would the Russians try to, having been totally unsuccessful in Ukraine, decide to widen the war, basing US troops and sending drones to Germany? Well, Germany has accused Russia of it directly uh uh early this week. They they basically said it was Russia. Do do you think it's less clear than that? The Germans have to blame it on someone and Russia is certainly possibly very possibly the source. I find it difficult to see why Russia would want to inflame the Europeans given that even the Ukrainians have made them stumbled badly in this war for almost 5 years. Going into the Baltics and killing American troops in the process would not be healthy and the Europeans would be quite capable of intervening as well. So, I don't see the Russians having an interest in this, but it's possible that it did did this. Well, well, I mean, in that respect, I suppose in many ways, is this all just a Bluff and double bluff: Putin's precarious position bit of bluff and double bluff? We're going to come on to the sort of hybrid warfare side of things in a bit, but this this talk of potentially attacking NATO, of things like allegedly the the the drone in in Germany, is this just part of a an escalation of bluffing? Well, I think the Russian view of the Europeans is I'll say what I think the Russian view is is they're gutless that given that they have done everything but send troops into Ukraine, leaving the Ukrainians to fight, they may think that they can intimidate the Europeans by the thought of war. And it's possible. And it may well be that the Germans are right. This was a Russian drone that was directed against an airport with explosives designed not to explode. Why the Russians at this point having so much trouble with the Ukrainians would want to take the chance of European armies, particularly the Polish army, which is very good, getting involved in it. Well, I I don't see the logic here, but it may be there. Okay, Putin may be I I see Putin as in a desperately dangerous position. He has fought this war for 4 and a2 years. He has failed to get anywhere near reaching his goal, which is occupying Ukraine. He refuses to end the war because to end the war would be failure. He's also been proposing a new in vast enrollment of new soldiers, shall we say. Now he's saying that we're not going to do that and we never planned to, but he had said it and so on. So you see a a leader of Russia in extreme trouble. the Europeans, well, there's no such thing as Europeans, the Germans in this case, uh, being hyper sensitive and the Americans playing the role of let's try calm calm down, boys. Let's go. And that's a very strange position for Donald Trump to be in. [music] Take a moment to follow and rate us on What a Baltic attack would mean for US troops your preferred podcast platform. If you're already watching on YouTube, don't forget to like and subscribe. [music] Talk through the talk me through the practicalities of what would happen with an attack on the Baltic in terms of US troops. Are they automatically drawn in to an attack like that with us stationed? You know, is is there a chance for for Donald Trump to say or or any any US leader to say, "No, we're not getting involved. Just go past us." Lithuania is a small country. Estonia is a small country. Latvia is a small country. US troops are there. five miles inland, who knows where they're going to be engaged. Okay? And the probability is would start with air attacks trying to clear the way. And it's very hard from 5,000 ft to notice if that's an American uniform or so. The probability of them killing Americans in this attack is great. At the same time, they're being having great difficulties in logistics, keeping their troops supplied. When you attack are on the attack, logistics are essential and the most difficult things to do. Your forces are moving forward. You have to anticipate how forward and you got to get the supplies to them at the same time. Okay? So, logistics are the basis of war. You don't have them. You don't and they're the hardest thing to do. The Russians have demonstrated very poor logistics capabilities on land. Moving forward into this area as well would indicate a greater a greater view of the Russians on their capabilities, shall we say. As for would the United States choose to have those forces there engage the size of the country means they'll be engaged. They're going to be part of that element. And being American, I know what it would mean if the Russians started killing Americans. And the Russians know that. That would be a reaction that Trump would have to massively respond to and so on. So, I don't think that they were going to do that. Okay. That they may have wanted to jerk the European chain. Well, what was the Europeans supposed to do as a response? Attack mobilize it. It's it the whole story doesn't fit. Okay. So, at the same time, the question was the other theory I had there were rumors and rumors are worth fairly little to nothing. Okay. There was rumors I'd heard that the FSB and SVR, the Russian security forces, were becoming appalled at the ongoing war that wasn't being won. Massive losses and there was tension between the intelligence forces and Putin. Total theory, rumor, not saying it's true. But that was one of the explanations which is that the CIA guy knew their views on on the war and sat down with them to try to talk about that. I I that's an unlikely scenario but it's there. Okay. The idea that they would invade Europe having failed completely in Ukraine and by the way how do they reach that area? They have to go through Bellarus you know. So that that is very hard to understand. At the same time, you should notice that Trump did something very interesting. He reopened his fundamental offer to the Russians from the first meeting. End the war and the US will have economic cooperation with you including investment. And so when he brought the financial minister, finance minister to the G20 meeting, terribly upsetting the Europeans by placing him there, he sort of reopened the door whose primary promise in the first place didn't work. So all sorts of things are going around. And one way to do deal with this is go to sleep for a few days and wake up and maybe you'll find out. [laughter] pulling it apart this way, it's not going to work. I mean, so often in in the current political climate, shall we say, Trump world and other in other ways, you know, you can sort of ignore things for a week and nothing might have changed within that week if you've been paying attention, everything's changed, but then by the time you get to the end, it's it's back to the start. This this is not just the this president. This is a normal occurrence when there's a tension. I live through the Vietnam War. One week we were winning, the next week everybody was withdrawing from there and it was constant uncertainty everywhere. So this is the nature of war. It is inherently uncertain. But if you pay too much attention to it, you'll go crazy. Wow. Yeah, absolutely. We're in the wrong profession then. Um, look, Russia's finance minister at the G20: Trump's offer reopened speaking of the G the G20 summit there, obviously, yes, as you say, Russia's finance minister was invited the first time since the war in Ukraine that happened. Are you sort of saying that was a signal to Russia rather than a a sort of promise to Russia, shall we, shall we say, rather than an actual uh uh definitive move by the US? Well, it was a definitive move in the sense that it was the first offer Trump made. He publicly said that if the Russians end the war, the United States will be happy to invest in Russia. Russia is a nice place to invest. Land is cheap, many minerals and so on and so forth. So that was the first offer. Putin wouldn't take it. Has always been on the table. The Russians never took it. This time I think he went to the intelligence chiefs made the same welfare primarily and to back it up invited the Russian finance minister, the right guy to do it to come to the meeting. He may not have told the Europeans that he's coming. They might have forgotten that part. But it seems to me that there's a logic going back to the beginning of the Trump presidency and the first negotiations that this is how he thought the war would end. And it's possible under these circumstances, Russia is in terrifically bad financial straits, okay, that this would be it. On top of that, it's possible that the Russians are also building um weapons for the UK for the Iranians, which would add to it as well. So, it's those two don't cancel each other out. It just might be another dimension to these talks saying don't do that. Yeah. Yeah. Well, let me ask you about Is Russia helping Iran build supersonic missiles? the Iranian side of of things in that respect then. What would that mean? I mean I mean what I'm saying what would that mean if Iran and Russia were doing that? Let's let's presume that the Financial Times report is correct and and they are doing that. What does that mean for America? What does that mean for the wider geopolitical system when it comes to Russia and Iran? Well, from the American point of view, if the Russians are involved in that, they truly are enemies. Okay? It's not just the Ukraine war that we're piddling in. It is not just a minor issue that we can live with over. It becomes something. Whether right or wrong, we went to war with Iran. Whether right or wrong, we have troops stationed there around there. Whether right or wrong, we have to protect those troops. So from my point of view, whatever you think of the war, the idea of the Russians providing weapons to a hostile force of the United States, okay, maybe logical and reasonable, but we can't afford that as a nation, okay? Because our troops can't be exposed at that. And rather than being intimidated by it, we now see Russia in a different light. previously was the gang who couldn't shoot straight, don't take him seriously, they can't even take Ukraine. Now it escalates and possibly if the Financial Times story is true, one of the things he discussed in talking to these people was that you know what's going to happen if you do this in Iran. You know that we can't end the war. at the same time showing a path to ending the war by bringing the finance ministers to the meeting. So it's not it's not simple. It's not completely algorithmic of your piece, but these are the pieces I see. And I mean to be clear we're talking Why the CIA talked to the FSB and SVR, not Putin about the sorts of weapons these supersonic cruise missiles which which can you know do well in many ways as yet um unseen damage because they haven't they've been used by Russia against Ukraine and often against ground targets but they haven't necessarily been used against against ships as far as I'm aware. you know, they could hit ships in the Gulf, cause huge casualties. If their desire was to engage in potential war with the United States by arming Iran, well, that would be a very silly thing for the Russians to do. And I think this is why we weren't talking to Putin. He's kind of off the ranch. We talked to two guys, the SVR head and the FSB head int journalist foreign intelligence and we talked to them. That tells us something about the internal process inside of Russia itself that these talks would be carried out and I suspect that these guys said now I can't calculate what the Americans are going to do in these circumstances. One of the odd benefits of Donald Trump, he's profoundly unpredictable. Okay, this makes it very difficult to live in the United States at times and in Europe, but you really can't predict what he's going to do. And by discovering this thing going on inside of Iran, well, what will he do? So by in this meeting I think what the United States was saying this can't go on they added in possibly I don't know the question on this plant they were building in Iran and I doubt they made any threats they probably said well we're intel guys if you were my place what would I advise the president to do without saying what you did I think that sort conversation may have taken place. Now, does this evolves anything inside of Russia? Well, we'll have to see. It's not going to be quick. Is my interpretation of the views of the Russian intelligence service correct? I'm not sure. I've heard rumors, but I've also heard rumors that they're going to invade Europe when they can invade Europe. There's not going to be invasion of Europe. They couldn't take Ukraine. Europe. "Hybrid warfare" is just sabotage Want actionable insight from geopolitical futures? Introducing Geoeconomic Lens, helping you understand not just what is happening, but how global power dynamics shape economic stability, dependency, and opportunity. Explore the first issue for free at geopolitical futures.com/lens. Well, look, let's go back to that and this sort of hybrid war that that has been talked about for a long time now. Not talking necessarily about this this drone attack on Leipzig airport, but I mean Russia has has in particular in recent weeks and months been upping its its hybrid warfare against European countries. We've had drone incursions into NATO and EU airspace. Uh we've had more cyber attacks, all that sort of thing. What is behind a do you think this uptick and b you know is it just simply a matter of aggravating these countries of of keeping them busy or what do you think it is? As a start I would like to say how much I hate the term hybrid warfare. It's sabotage. It's psychological uh warfare. It's the oldest game in the book. Okay. This is not a new version of warfare that they would invade, act without an invasion, covertly carrying out covert operations, possibly send a missile or two into Europe. These are natural forms of war if you want to keep the other side from coming into the war. If you want the other side to come into the war, this is also a way to get them into the war. So the idea of waging what you call hybrid warfare, carrying out sabotage that kills people, wrecking the internet, having stories in the internet about how evil the Americans are and everything else like that. This would seem more likely to provoke warfare than to intimidate. And the nature of hybrid warfare is to create a situation where a country feels vulnerable and seems to have an option not to get involved and trying to bribe that. That's a risky thing because sometimes the country evolves differently. Now, given that in Europe, the easternmost country, Poland, is a massive economic force with 10,000 American troops stationed there. Okay? And certainly the first place they're going to meet because the Baltics don't count that much. It really doesn't matter what the French do this [laughter] time. The Americans are there and the Poles are powerful and they couldn't beat the Ukrainians, which I will repay over and over again. The idea that this army that can't take out the Ukrainians, that's fighting for inches in the Donbas, is about to launch an attack deep into Europe and believes it has capability to do so. It's very hard to grasp this logic, but it's very hard to be European. Well, look, at the same time, I mean, I Putin's threats against Britain mean, at the other end of Europe, Russia has been escalating its threats against Britain. been lots of back and forth ver verbal exchanges largely about the Britain's supply of arms to Ukraine in the past few weeks. Uh and Britain's new prime minister Andy Bernham was in Ukraine last week or the week before and promising potentially uh longrange missiles for Ukraine yesterday. I think it was on on earlier this week. Putin said he was asked a question by a journalist about whether or not the Russian army would consider striking British armaments factories in Britain and he did the very Putin way that he likes to do. He said that was classified. George is this just saber rattling. I mean they probably they they could do it but yeah I grew up in the Bronx. We got to say money talks and BS walks fully spelled out. Okay. So in a time of war, particularly in a war that is not going well, pay little attention to what the president says. Again, I refer back to Lyndon Johnson in LBJ in the Vietnam War. Okay? He was always about to win that war. Okay? It just never happened. So what I'm saying here is that the leaders in war cannot tell the truth. Because one of the foundations of war called hybrid now is disinformation. There is no person in a war that's going to say, "Well, I can't win this war, but but you know, I'm going to really endanger you." So, making threats is a normal thing. Now, let's assume that they opened up on the Brits. Okay? Well, two things happen. the polls go crazy and charge. But more than that, you cannot predict what Trump's going to do. All right? It's one thing to say to the Europeans, "Screw you. You know, we don't care." Another thing to see the Brits go down in an attack. And if we don't respond to that, what's the next time when we go into Cuba going to happen? What's going to happen to the United States? If Putin actually does the things he's threaten, he opens up a Pandora's box. It may be that the British will therefore surrender and give up. It may be they won't. It may be the Poles will hit them because they figure they're next. Worse yet, the United States might decide this guy's really serious. Let's act before he hits us. So, I just you you can make threats anytime you want. There was a guy in my class in high school. I threatened a lot. It was meaningless because he'd kill me if I tried to hit him. [laughter] It was not possible. So, always take a look when you're looking at not at what people say, but what they can do and what they cannot do. And in my view, they Russians cannot invade Europe. They can carry out a sabotage. They can carry out in, you know, warfare, psychological warfare, you know, planning stories on the internet. But waging war in Europe at these circumstances with these forces facing them, not an option. Well, during the Cold War, Russia may well have been able Nuclear deterrence and Cold War lessons to invade Europe, particularly at certain points. That may have changed now, but what hasn't changed is nuclear weapons, George. It's something we've talked about before. Something that is always worried about. It's always saber rattled by the Russians as well, of course. Um, but in any confrontation with the West, there is that risk that everyone is very well aware of of escalation in that sense. Does that come into it here at all when we're talking about CIA trips to Moscow and and supersonic weapons going to Iran and everything else? We're looking at this as a tense moment. It is nothing like the tense moments during the Cold War. The Cuban Missile Crisis, as an example, there is a principle that's always held based on MAD, mutual assured destruction. about 30 minutes after impacts of nuclear weapons on the United States, there'd be similar impacts on Russia. In some ways, there was always intelligence trying to know where the Russian leader was. So, the first strike could also kill him. All right? So when you take a look at this principle of mutual assured destruction which is yeah you can launch a missile but boy a lot back more coming back at you based on that it never was a war. The most interesting thing about the United States and the Soviet Union is we never had a direct war conventional or unconventional with each other. This was because each side understood the calamity that would happen to both sides. It was not like Pearl Harbor that you could hit, go home and wait. Nuclear war is very fastm moving. Has to be. And you have an excellent chance of being vaporized in the next 30 minutes if you've ordered it. So there's a reason why there's never been a nuclear war. And I just want everybody to consider this is the first major geopolitical confrontation, one that divided Europe, fought over the former European empires, all of these things. But the United States and Soviet Union never came to blows. Why? Because in a strange way, nuclear weapons are pacifists. They impose specific actions. Do you think both sides still understand that? They understood that then. Do you think they still do now? Well, unless they're brain damaged. Yes. I mean, launching an attack on the United States, given all the satellites we have and all the missiles we have standing by, or launching those missiles at Russia, there are whole teams of people working those things. That's not going away. It's what kept the cold war from becoming a world war. There was no question given the first world war, second world war that had there not been nuclear weapons at some point Russia would have not tried to take Europe or the United States would not tried this or that or other things. They could take risks. The interesting thing about the cold war was everybody was so careful in what they did. Even during the Cuban Cuban missile crisis, the United States did not strike Cuba. Okay, it threatened to. It went on full alert and the Russians decided, let's can this game. Okay, but when we look at nuclear weapons, and I'm not saying this will be the case in every country. There may be countries that don't care if they're destroyed in the process and so on and so forth. But Russia and America had a long standing 80year understanding with each other about 78 years until they got nukes. Okay? You don't screw with me. I don't screw with you. We can fool around in Vietnam all we want. We can enjoy all our games in Africa, Congo, but we do not make war directly on each other. And I think that principle still is intact. [music] Well, on that cheery note, uh let's Wrap-up leave it there, George. Uh as always, as you say, a period of heightened tension, um and one that we will be following very closely at Geopolitical Futures. Uh go to geopolitical futures.com, of course, for this and everything else you might want to read about geopolitics all around the globe. George, thank you. Thank you out there for listening. We'll be back again soon with another podcast. But until then, you take care and goodbye. Bye. Why did CIA director Ratcliff go to Moscow? ✓ signal to the American public that the US is confronting Russia ✓ wanted the Russian public to know this, that there was this meeting → wanted to be seen ✓ rumours suggest Russian intelligence services are growing hostile to Putin (execution of the war, unwillingness to end it) → fundamentally shook up the system ✓ people trying to figure out what's going on → the more predictable the nation is in its actions, the less successful it will be ✓ create doubt about what the US is doing → create the need for Russia to respond in some way → create uncertainty = what is needed in negotiations Why isn't Russia likely to attack Baltic states? ✓ the US have troops in the Baltics 〆any attack on the Baltics would inevitably involve American casualties ✓ American casualties would be considered a serious escalation 〆American national mood would change profoundly → if Russia attacked Europe the United States would have to intervene → Europeans would be quite capable of intervening as well ✓ Russia has been totally unsuccessful in Ukraine → can't decide to widen the war = bluff Why did Donald Trump invite the Russian finance minister to the meeting of the G20? Why did this upset the Europeans? ✓ publicly said that if the Russians end the war, the United States will be happy to invest in Russia ✓ Russia is a nice place to invest ✓ cheap land ✓ minerals → reopened his fundamental offer to the Russians from the first meeting = end the war and the US will have economic cooperation → hidden agenda? (not mentioned in the interview) = dissuade Russia from supporting Iran to dissuade = to persuade sb not to do sth What would that mean for the US if Russia was helping Iran build supersonic missiles? ✓ if the Russians are involved in that, they truly are enemies ✓ the US have troops stationed around there → need to protect them = can't afford as a nation the idea of the Russians providing weapons to a hostile force of the United States ✓ previously Russia was not taken seriously because couldn't even take Ukraine → now is an escalation, unlike the status quo during the Cold War Why is hybrid warfare a misleading term? ✓ sabotage ✓ psychological warfare ✓ wrecking the internet with propaganda ✓ carry out covert operations ✓ possibly send a missile or two into Europe → more likely to provoke warfare than to intimidate ✓ nature of hybrid warfare is to create a situation where a country feels vulnerable → seems to have an option not to get involved → try to bribe that ✓ Britain's supply of arms to Ukraine ✓ promise of potentially long range missiles → if you want to keep the other side from coming into the war ✓ leaders in war cannot tell the truth ✓ one of the foundations of war called hybrid now is disinformation → threats are normal Why is nuclear deterrence a pacifier? ✓ if Russia bombs Britain, Poland will retaliate ✓ Trump cannot take risks of being next → USA may hit Russia first ✓ Cuban missile crisis, example of the MAD principle = mutual assured destruction → about 30 minutes after impacts of nuclear weapons on the United States, there'd be similar impacts on Russia ✓ each side understands the calamity that would happen to both sides → nuclear weapons are pacifists to retaliate = to do sth harmful to sb because they have harmed you first MAD= mutual assured destruction What kept the Cold War from becoming a world war? You don't screw with me. I don't screw with you. We can fool around in Vietnam all we want. We can enjoy all our games in Africa, Congo, but we do not make war directly on each other ]]> reciprocal = involving two people or groups who agree to help each other or behave in the same way to each other 63 to dissuade = to persuade sb not to do sth to retaliate = to do sth harmful to sb because they have harmed you first MAD= mutual assured destruction reciprocal = involving two people or groups who agree to help each other or behave in the same way to each other 62 20260901 09:00-10:00 MSK 1.5 28 -28 + -124 = -152 active Public vs private bilingual education in Germany By the end of this session you will have studied Zoom meeting details Meeting ID: 736 3734 5149 Passcode: VhP32d https://us04web.zoom.us/j/73637345149?pwd=9XbxDC1Zm8liOLa6Q1HQRtaqnUaYQS.1 ]]> 61 Public vs private bilingual education in Germany active 1 textbook 60 59 20260827 09:00-10:00 MSK 1.5 28 -28 + -96 = -124 active Case study: Vladimirsky Standard meat processing plant suspends operations By the end of this session you will have studied Zoom meeting details Meeting ID: 736 3734 5149 Passcode: VhP32d https://us04web.zoom.us/j/73637345149?pwd=9XbxDC1Zm8liOLa6Q1HQRtaqnUaYQS.1 ]]> Case study 58 1 Case study: Vladimirsky Standard meat processing plant suspends operations active wip edit_short_reading_floating prep_short_reading_floating pix/icons8-reading-100_white.png When is it worth saving a business from bankruptcy? 〆profit margins might not be sufficient in the light of likely competition from other regions → small towns rely heavily on such plants as their main employer = social cost Read the excerpt. → answer the questions → prepare for a role play in which you will stand for the company ]]> What tale tell signs suggest the plant may file for bankruptcy? 〆interruptions in the supply of raw materials, spices, and casings 〆multimillion-dollar debts and lawsuits 〆creditors seeking bankruptcy 〆200 people have resigned from the plant in the past month 〆another 4,000 people are without pay or work 〆customers returning products What would be an optimal strategy to save the business? ✓ 4.5 billion rouble worth company is large enough to become a useful asset in proper hands ✓ encourage employees to take sick leave ✓ push for vacation ✓ evaluate & prioritise risks with financial modelling ✓ continue producing for a retail group and sell under another established brand name ✓ employ staff at a loss → save jobs = prefer a social solution to a financial one What BATNA (best alternative to a negotiated agreement) should you try negotiating? 〆not big enough a player to be nationalised ✓ find a bigger competitor to take over the business (Cherkizovo?) → save assets = take advantage of your competitor's existing supply chain and distribution channels What could be a worst case scenario? ✓ face cases of food poisoning ✓ file for bankruptcy ✓ seize assets ✓ sell for recovering debts One of Russia's largest sausage producers is on the brink of bankruptcy and has suspended production One of Russia's largest sausage producers is on the brink of bankruptcy and has suspended production Moscow Times Moscow Times

One of Russia's largest sausage producers is on the brink of bankruptcy and has suspended production The Vladimirsky Standard meat processing plant has suspended operations and placed its staff on forced leave, Rail Yalilov, CEO of the plant, told Mash. The company, one of the country's top 20 sausage producers, is facing multimillion-dollar debts and lawsuits, with creditors seeking bankruptcy. According to the channel, 200 people have resigned from the plant, located in the closed city of Raduzhny in the Vladimir region, in the past month, and another 4,000 are without pay or work. ]]> The Moscow Times ]]> suspend = to officially stop sth for a time; to prevent sth from being active, used, etc. for a time; to officially delay sth; to arrange for sth to happen later than planned forced leave = occurs when an employer requires an employee to take time off work against their will. Can be paid (deducted from accrued PTO) or unpaid, and is typically implemented for business shutdowns, to reduce excess leave balances, or during a workplace investigation idle = (of machines, factories, etc.) not in use; (of people) without work; unemployed defendant = person in a court of law who is accused of committing a crime, or who is being sued by another person arrears = /əˈrɪəz/ money that sb owes that they have not paid at the right time tale tell = clear, revealing clue or indicator that gives away a hidden fact, problem, or truth

57 2 SWOT analysis Preparing & delivering a SWOT analysis pix/icons8-lecturer-100_white.png active prep_2columns_2qa edit_2columns_2qa Strengths

• • •

Weaknesses

• • •

Opportunities

• • •

Threats

• • •

]]> Strengths

• customer base • brand awareness • all-time seller in the food industry

Weaknesses

• mismanagement • likely Soviet legacy • huge debts, law suits • unpaid workers

Opportunities

• take over assets at a competitive cost given the current market outlook • increase market share • export to other regions thanks to channels of distribution of the acquiring company

Threats

• nature of the business model doesn't lend itself to much innovation, advertising, customer delight • market not mature for high added value products will prefer cheaper products • no foreseeable need for modernising the chain or exports

]]> 56 to suspend = to officially stop sth for a time; to prevent sth from being active, used, etc. for a time; to officially delay sth; to arrange for sth to happen later than planned forced leave | compulsory leave = occurs when an employer requires an employee to take time off work against their will. Can be paid (deducted from accrued PTO) or unpaid, and is typically implemented for business shutdowns, to reduce excess leave balances, or during a workplace investigation idle = (of machines, factories, etc.) not in use; (of people) without work; unemployed defendant = person in a court of law who is accused of committing a crime, or who is being sued by another person arrears /əˈrɪəz/ = money that sb owes that they have not paid at the right time to be in arrears | get / fall into arrears = to be late in paying money that you owe tale tell = clear, revealing clue or indicator that gives away a hidden fact, problem, or truth 55 degradate degrade ~~by the~~ with time ]]> 20260824 09:00-10:00 MSK 1.5 28 -28 + -68 = -96 active European resolve and the Russian economic tipping point: a strategic reassessment (2/2) By the end of this session you will have studied Zoom meeting details Meeting ID: 736 3734 5149 Passcode: VhP32d https://us04web.zoom.us/j/73637345149?pwd=9XbxDC1Zm8liOLa6Q1HQRtaqnUaYQS.1 ]]> C1 Politics 54 1 European resolve and the Russian economic tipping point: a strategic reassessment active wip edit_short_reading_floating prep_short_reading_floating pix/icons8-reading-100_white.png After 4.5 years into the war waged by the Russian Federation on Ukraine, aren't Europeans under-estimating the tipping point that would make Russia choke? What evidence is cited to suggest that the Russian economy has shown resilience, and what evidence suggests the cumulative pressure is taking a toll? cumulative pressure = total force of multiple ongoing actions economic erosion = gradual decline in economic strength How do internal EU divisions, as exemplified by Hungary's position, threaten the effectiveness of the collective strategy? collective strategy = coordinated plan of action by a group disproportionate leverage = excessive power or influence relative to size to dismantle = to take apart a machine or structure so that it is in separate pieces; to end an organization or system gradually in an organized way disjointed = not communicated or described in a clear or logical way; not connected In what ways does China's economic relationship with Russia undermine the impact of Western sanctions? to undermine = to make sth, especially sb's confidence or authority, gradually weaker or less effective dual-use goods = items that can be used for both civilian and military purposes economic lifeline = critical source of financial or material support What is the significance of the finding that support for peace negotiations now exceeds support for the withdrawal of Russian troops in some European countries? war fatigue = exhaustion and loss of enthusiasm for a prolonged conflict pragmatic realism = practical approach based on current realities rather than ideals to be at odds = to disagree with sb about sth Why might Russian propaganda be considered to have benefited from the sanctions regime? sanctions regime = system of restrictive measures imposed by one country on another bolstering domestic support = strengthening internal approval for a government dissent = fact of having or expressing opinions that are different from those that are officially accepted inadvertently = by accident; without intending to What are three contradictory solutions to address the challenges outlined? bloodshed = killing or wounding of people, usually during fighting or a war circumvention = act of avoiding or bypassing rules or restrictions What historical or legal examples are relevant to the challenges of maintaining a sanctions coalition? to falter = to become weaker or less effective; to speak in a way that shows that you are not confident inherently fragile = naturally weak and easily broken What is the central argument made about the concept of a "tipping point" for the Russian economy? tipping point = critical moment when a significant change occurs coalition cohesion = unity and solidarity among members of an alliance resolve = strong determination to achieve sth European resolve and the Russian economic tipping point: a strategic reassessment European resolve and the Russian economic tipping point: a strategic reassessment D.Potter - DeepSeek 20260821

choke = to prevent, limit, interrupt sth confound = confuse and surprise sb; to prove sb/sth wrong freefall = sudden drop in the value of sth that cannot be stopped bottleneck = anything that slows down development or progress, particularly in business or industry underscoring = underlining battered = attacked violently and injured protracted = lasting longer than expected or longer than usual cumulative pressure = total force of multiple ongoing actions deplete = to reduce sth by a large amount so that there is not enough left economic erosion = gradual decline in economic strength sanctions regime = system of restrictive measures imposed by one country on another circumvention = act of avoiding or bypassing rules or restrictions undermine = to make sth, especially sb's confidence or authority, gradually weaker or less effective dual-use goods = items that can be used for both civilian and military purposes economic lifeline = critical source of financial or material support protracted contest = prolonged struggle or conflict collective strategy = coordinated plan of action by a group disproportionate leverage = excessive power or influence relative to size dismantled = having taking apart a structure so that it is in separate pieces disjointed = not communicated or described in a clear or logical way; not connected discord = disagreement; quarrelling to undermine = to make sth, especially sb's confidence or authority, gradually weaker or less effective war fatigue = exhaustion and loss of enthusiasm for a prolonged conflict pragmatic realism = practical approach based on current realities rather than ideals at odds = in disagreement with sb about sth sanctions regime = system of restrictive measures imposed by one country on another bolstering domestic support = strengthening internal approval for a government foment = to create trouble or violence or make it worse dissent = fact of having or expressing opinions that are different from those that are officially accepted inadvertently = by accident; without intending to bloodshed = killing or wounding of people, usually during fighting or a war circumvention = act of avoiding or bypassing rules or restrictions falter = to become weaker or less effective inherently fragile = naturally weak and easily broken tipping point = critical moment when a significant change occurs coalition cohesion = unity and solidarity among members of an alliance resolve = strong determination to achieve sth deter = to make sb decide not to do sth or continue doing sth, especially by making them understand the difficulties and unpleasant results of their actions

53 to choke = to prevent, limit, interrupt sth; to be unable to breathe because the passage to your lungs is blocked or you cannot get enough air; to make sb unable to breathe to confound = to confuse and surprise sb; to prove sb/sth wrong freefall = sudden drop in the value of sth that cannot be stopped bottleneck = anything that slows down development or progress, particularly in business or industry underscoring = underlining battered = old, used a lot, and not in very good condition; attacked violently and injured; attacked and badly damaged by weapons or by bad weather protracted = lasting longer than expected or longer than usual cumulative pressure = total force of multiple ongoing actions to deplete = to reduce sth by a large amount so that there is not enough left to dismantle = to take apart a machine or structure so that it is in separate pieces; to end an organization or system gradually in an organized way collective strategy = coordinated plan of action by a group disproportionate leverage = excessive power or influence relative to sizedisjointed = not communicated or described in a clear or logical way; not connected to undermine = to make sth, especially sb's confidence or authority, gradually weaker or less effective dual-use goods = items that can be used for both civilian and military purposes economic lifeline = critical source of financial or material support war fatigue = exhaustion and loss of enthusiasm for a prolonged conflict pragmatic realism = practical approach based on current realities rather than ideals to be at odds = to disagree with sb about sth sanctions regime = system of restrictive measures imposed by one country on another bolstering domestic support = strengthening internal approval for a government foment = to create trouble or violence or make it worse dissent = fact of having or expressing opinions that are different from those that are officially accepted inadvertently = by accident; without intending to bloodshed = killing or wounding of people, usually during fighting or a war circumvention = act of avoiding or bypassing rules or restrictions to falter = to become weaker or less effective; to speak in a way that shows that you are not confident inherently fragile = naturally weak and easily broken tipping point = critical moment when a significant change occurs coalition cohesion = unity and solidarity among members of an alliance resolve = strong determination to achieve sth to deter = to make sb decide not to do sth or continue doing sth, especially by making them understand the difficulties and unpleasant results of their actions 52 20260821 09:00-10:00 MSK 1.5 28 -28 + -40 = -68 active European resolve and the Russian economic tipping point: a strategic reassessment (1/2) By the end of this session you will have studied Zoom meeting details Meeting ID: 736 3734 5149 Passcode: VhP32d https://us04web.zoom.us/j/73637345149?pwd=9XbxDC1Zm8liOLa6Q1HQRtaqnUaYQS.1 ]]> C1 Politics 51 1 European resolve and the Russian economic tipping point: a strategic reassessment active wip edit_short_reading_floating prep_short_reading_floating pix/icons8-reading-100_white.png After 4.5 years into the war waged by the Russian Federation on Ukraine, aren't Europeans under-estimating the tipping point that would make Russia choke? What evidence is cited to suggest that the Russian economy has shown resilience, and what evidence suggests the cumulative pressure is taking a toll? cumulative pressure = total force of multiple ongoing actions economic erosion = gradual decline in economic strength How do internal EU divisions, as exemplified by Hungary's position, threaten the effectiveness of the collective strategy? collective strategy = coordinated plan of action by a group disproportionate leverage = excessive power or influence relative to size to dismantle = to take apart a machine or structure so that it is in separate pieces; to end an organization or system gradually in an organized way disjointed = not communicated or described in a clear or logical way; not connected In what ways does China's economic relationship with Russia undermine the impact of Western sanctions? to undermine = to make sth, especially sb's confidence or authority, gradually weaker or less effective dual-use goods = items that can be used for both civilian and military purposes economic lifeline = critical source of financial or material support What is the significance of the finding that support for peace negotiations now exceeds support for the withdrawal of Russian troops in some European countries? war fatigue = exhaustion and loss of enthusiasm for a prolonged conflict pragmatic realism = practical approach based on current realities rather than ideals to be at odds = to disagree with sb about sth Why might Russian propaganda be considered to have benefited from the sanctions regime? sanctions regime = system of restrictive measures imposed by one country on another bolstering domestic support = strengthening internal approval for a government dissent = fact of having or expressing opinions that are different from those that are officially accepted inadvertently = by accident; without intending to What are three contradictory solutions to address the challenges outlined? bloodshed = killing or wounding of people, usually during fighting or a war circumvention = act of avoiding or bypassing rules or restrictions What historical or legal examples are relevant to the challenges of maintaining a sanctions coalition? to falter = to become weaker or less effective; to speak in a way that shows that you are not confident inherently fragile = naturally weak and easily broken What is the central argument made about the concept of a "tipping point" for the Russian economy? tipping point = critical moment when a significant change occurs coalition cohesion = unity and solidarity among members of an alliance resolve = strong determination to achieve sth European resolve and the Russian economic tipping point: a strategic reassessment European resolve and the Russian economic tipping point: a strategic reassessment D.Potter - DeepSeek 20260821

50 to choke = to prevent, limit, interrupt sth; to be unable to breathe because the passage to your lungs is blocked or you cannot get enough air; to make sb unable to breathe to confound = to confuse and surprise sb; to prove sb/sth wrong freefall = sudden drop in the value of sth that cannot be stopped bottleneck = anything that slows down development or progress, particularly in business or industry underscoring = underlining battered = old, used a lot, and not in very good condition; attacked violently and injured; attacked and badly damaged by weapons or by bad weather protracted = lasting longer than expected or longer than usual cumulative pressure = total force of multiple ongoing actions to deplete = to reduce sth by a large amount so that there is not enough left to dismantle = to take apart a machine or structure so that it is in separate pieces; to end an organization or system gradually in an organized way collective strategy = coordinated plan of action by a group disproportionate leverage = excessive power or influence relative to sizedisjointed = not communicated or described in a clear or logical way; not connected to undermine = to make sth, especially sb's confidence or authority, gradually weaker or less effective dual-use goods = items that can be used for both civilian and military purposes economic lifeline = critical source of financial or material support war fatigue = exhaustion and loss of enthusiasm for a prolonged conflict pragmatic realism = practical approach based on current realities rather than ideals to be at odds = to disagree with sb about sth sanctions regime = system of restrictive measures imposed by one country on another bolstering domestic support = strengthening internal approval for a government foment = to create trouble or violence or make it worse dissent = fact of having or expressing opinions that are different from those that are officially accepted inadvertently = by accident; without intending to bloodshed = killing or wounding of people, usually during fighting or a war circumvention = act of avoiding or bypassing rules or restrictions to falter = to become weaker or less effective; to speak in a way that shows that you are not confident inherently fragile = naturally weak and easily broken tipping point = critical moment when a significant change occurs coalition cohesion = unity and solidarity among members of an alliance resolve = strong determination to achieve sth to deter = to make sb decide not to do sth or continue doing sth, especially by making them understand the difficulties and unpleasant results of their actions 49 20260814 09:00-10:00 MSK 1.5 28 -28 + -12 = -40 active Challenges of connecting HR corporate policy with real world business needs By the end of this session you will have studied Zoom meeting details Meeting ID: 736 3734 5149 Passcode: VhP32d https://us04web.zoom.us/j/73637345149?pwd=9XbxDC1Zm8liOLa6Q1HQRtaqnUaYQS.1 ]]> 48 1 Organizational Learning and the Learning Organization active edit_ol_qa pix/icons8-movie-100_white.png Why do SME (small and medium sized enterprises) often lack dedicated resources for comprehensive learning programmes? Can they afford to cut costs on educating their staff? Organizational Learning and the Learning Organization David M. Kopp https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D9xoAGSJY0Q Watch the video. → answer the questions ]]> What are the five key characteristics of a learning organisation? ✓ engage in systems thinking ✓ commitment to personal mastery and mental methods ✓ communication ✓ promote a shared vision ✓ commitment to team learning learning organisation = a house where organisational learning (a process) takes place Could you have organisation learning without a learning organisation? 〆not in the long term, especially in a large company 〆organisation learning without a learning organisation runs the risk of providing irrelevant, outdated training which lacks a shared vision → outsourcing training results in the absence of systems thinking where only individual needs rather than team ones are satisfied If you don't use it, you lose it How do you engage in systems thinking in your company? ✓ methodological units are responsible not only for functioning but also training ✓ strategic understanding → operational correction of processes = optimisation see example of the reception at the hotel which informs when guests check out What tools do you implement to ensure commitment to personal mastery and mental methods? ✓ discussions to make staff understand their role in the whole process → identify who is responsible for a given process mastery = great knowledge about or understanding of a particular thing Why is it important to promote a shared vision? ✓ address the risk of working in a vacuum ✓ use the 'super goal' → motivation to improve your work How do you recognise commitment to team learning? ✓ Team members are as passionate about their ideas as others' ideas → staff immediately react to sth wrong 47 2 Bridging the policy-reality gap: can learning organisations deliver tangible business results? active wip edit_short_reading_floating prep_short_reading_floating pix/icons8-reading-100_white.png Could Senge's Fifth Discipline concepts bridge the gap between HR policy and operational business needs? The article suggests that "the aspirational language of Senge's vision stands in stark contrast to operational realities." What specific factors contribute to this implementation gap, and why might a 400-employee IT company face particular difficulties? quarterly earnings pressure = short-term financial performance expectations that prioritise immediate results short-termism = excessive focus on immediate outcomes at the expense of long-term planning cultural transformation = fundamental change in organisational values, behaviours and assumptions Nonaka characterises knowledge creation as "a way of behaving, indeed, a way of being." In what ways does this philosophical perspective differ from the practical approach to knowledge management typically observed in corporate environments? intrinsic process = activity that occurs naturally rather than through external direction organic development = growth that emerges naturally rather than being artificially imposed enabling conditions = factors that facilitate rather than directly cause desired outcomes Why does the article describe the Japanese knowledge management experience of the 1980s and 1990s as offering "cautionary tales" rather than simply exemplars of success? exemplars = outstanding examples that serve as models to be followed bureaucratic inertia = resistance to change arising from established administrative procedures universally replicable = capable of being successfully reproduced in any organisational context What legal and regulatory frameworks does the article reference, and how do these illustrate the "policy-practice gap" in workplace learning initiatives? box-ticking exercise = superficial compliance performed without genuine commitment perverse incentives = unintended consequences where rules produce undesirable behaviours policy-practice gap = discrepancy between formal intentions and actual implementation The article presents three contradictory approaches to implementing lifelong learning. How do these solutions differ in their potential social and economic consequences? workforce alienation = employee disengagement resulting from perceived unfairness or exclusion organisational distinctiveness = unique capabilities or characteristics that differentiate a company strategic dilemmas = situations requiring difficult choices between mutually incompatible options What does the article mean when it states that Senge's framework "provides a valuable conceptual vocabulary for articulating aspirations, yet it does not, in itself, constitute a blueprint for action"? blueprint for action = detailed plan providing step-by-step implementation guidance operationalisation = process of translating abstract concepts into concrete practices behavioural indicators = observable actions that provide evidence of underlying attitudes or commitments The article emphasises that HR policies "risk remaining what they have often been accused of becoming: theoretical knowledge patterns." What evidence from the text supports this pessimistic assessment, and what would be required to overcome this limitation? bureaucratic inertia = organisational resistance to change short-termism = excessive focus on immediate outcomes at expense of long-term planning accountability structures = mechanisms ensuring responsibility for achieving specific outcomes If you were the HR director of a 400-employee IT company, how would you balance the competing priorities of social objectives and economic imperatives when implementing lifelong learning initiatives? stakeholder buy-in = acceptance and support from individuals affected by a change pragmatic approaches = practical methods focused on what works in specific circumstances incremental implementation = gradual introduction of changes rather than immediate transformation Bridging the policy-reality gap: can learning organisations deliver tangible business results? Bridging the policy-reality gap: can learning organisations deliver tangible business results? D.Potter - DeepSeek 20260814

collective aspiration = shared ambition or goal that unites a group knowledge worker = employee whose primary contribution involves creating, processing or applying information organisational redundancy = deliberate overlap of information, activities or roles to foster innovation tacit knowledge = intuitive, unwritten understanding that is difficult to formalise or communicate explicit knowledge = knowledge that is codified, documented and easily transferable component technologies = distinct tools or methodologies that together form a comprehensive system mental models = deeply held assumptions and beliefs that influence how individuals understand the world systems thinking = approach that examines interconnections and patterns rather than isolated events founders on the rocks = fails due to encountering unexpected difficulties or obstacles box-ticking exercise = superficial compliance activity performed merely to satisfy requirements policy-practice gap = discrepancy between formal rules or intentions and actual implementation two-tier culture = organisational environment with distinct status and opportunities between employee groups conceptual vocabulary = specialised terminology that enables discussion of abstract ideas blueprint for action = detailed plan or framework that provides specific guidance for implementation

46 3 Bridging the policy-reality gap: can EFMD Clip accreditation resolve the learning organisation dilemma? active wip edit_short_reading_floating prep_short_reading_floating pix/icons8-reading-100_white.png Could the European Foundation for Management Development's Corporate Learning Improvement Process (CLIP) offer a reliable roadmap to achieve operational reality and not just yet another theoretical aspiration? EFMD Global - The official website for the European Foundation for Management Development, which administers the CLIP accreditation.

EFMD Global Blog - The source for announcements and detailed articles on CLIP accreditation, including the case of PLN Corporate University[reference:0].

CLIP: Corporate Learning Improvement Process - The dedicated page on the EFMD blog for the CLIP accreditation process and a list of accredited organisations[reference:1][reference:2].

PLN Corporate University awarded 5-year EFMD CLIP re-accreditation - The specific EFMD blog post detailing the benefits and strategic impact of CLIP accreditation for PLN Corporate University[reference:3].

Publisher description for The Fifth Discipline - A summary of Peter Senge's seminal work on learning organisations[reference:4].

The Knowledge-Creating Company - Information on Ikujiro Nonaka and Hirotaka Takeuchi's book, which explores how companies create new knowledge[reference:5].

Apprenticeships, Skills, Children and Learning Act 2009 - The official UK legislation referenced in the discussion of legal frameworks for staff development[reference:6].

CIPD (Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development) - The professional body for HR and people development, whose research on upskilling and staff turnover was cited[reference:7].

]]> The compilation suggests that CLIP accreditation "bridges the gap between strategic aspiration and tangible organisational impact." What specific mechanisms does the CLIP process employ to achieve this bridging effect? strategic alignment = consistency between learning activities and business objectives external validation = independent confirmation of quality and effectiveness measurable outcomes = quantifiable results that demonstrate impact Why might the CLIP accreditation process be particularly valuable for a 400-employee IT company struggling to implement Senge's learning organisation principles? quality standards = specific criteria against which performance is assessed policy-practice gap = discrepancy between formal intentions and actual implementation actionable requirements = specific tasks or conditions that can be implemented The compilation mentions that CLIP "provokes a strategic dialogue among stakeholders." Why is such dialogue critical for resolving the tension between HR policy and business needs? stakeholder engagement = involvement of all parties with an interest in outcomes ownership = sense of responsibility and commitment to a programme trade-off decisions = choices involving sacrifice of one benefit for another What evidence does the article provide that CLIP accreditation delivers practical benefits beyond theoretical recognition? enterprise-wide capability = organisation-wide skills and competencies continuous improvement = ongoing effort to enhance processes and outcomes operational benefits = practical advantages affecting day-to-day activities The compilation acknowledges that CLIP accreditation is "not a panacea." What limitations or challenges does it identify, and why are these significant? panacea = universal remedy or solution organisational commitment = dedication of resources and attention to a priority onerous = burdensome or difficult to sustain How does the CLIP peer review process differ from internal quality assessments, and why is this distinction important? peer review = evaluation by qualified professionals from similar organisations external validation = independent confirmation of quality and effectiveness benchmarking insights = comparative understanding derived from other organisations' practices The compilation states that CLIP helps position the learning organisation "strategically, giving it visibility and credibility within the company itself." Why is internal credibility essential for the success of learning initiatives? internal credibility = trust and respect earned within the organisation resource allocation = distribution of budgets, staff and attention strategic asset = resource that provides competitive advantage If you were the Chief Learning Officer of a 400-employee IT company, what factors would you consider when deciding whether to pursue CLIP accreditation? organisational maturity = stage of development and sophistication of processes strategic positioning = deliberate choice of role within the broader organisational context remediation = corrective action to address identified deficiencies Bridging the policy-reality gap: can EFMD Clip accreditation resolve the learning organisation dilemma? Bridging the policy-reality gap: can EFMD Clip accreditation resolve the learning organisation dilemma? D.Potter - DeepSeek 20260814

perennial = continuing for a very long time; happening again and again peer review = evaluation by qualified professionals from similar organisations quality management tool = systematic framework for maintaining and improving standards strategic positioning = deliberate choice of role and focus within the broader organisational context benchmarking = comparison against recognised best practices or standards self-assessment = internal evaluation against established criteria governance = systems and processes for direction and control enterprise-wide capability = organisation-wide skills and competencies accreditation = formal recognition of meeting specified quality standards panacea = universal remedy or solution continuous improvement = ongoing effort to enhance processes and outcomes

45 4 Role play active role_play Recycle new expressions and language. Recycle new expressions and language. You founded your business by taking over a Soviet, state-owned company in the early 90s when the Russian Federation was going through many changes. You managed to save jobs and preserve assets. It was tough but you kept the company afloat. You believe you know best how to manage the company. 〆Authority cannot be shared by a group of people. ✓ I'm confident I can exercise my board responsibilities even if I have more power than my fellow board members. 〆There's no way I'm going to step down! 〆I believe only in vertical management 〆Current needs in the steel industry can't be addressed by empowerment You are a member of the board. You have work experience in the Soviet era, the current Russian Federation, as well as abroad in international joint-ventures. You want the founder and CEO to retire. 〆Responsibilities of the board chair and CEO cannot be held by the same person 〆You can't be accountable to a board of which you are the chair ✓ You must retire 〆If you're confident you can exercise your board responsibilities, why do you need us? 〆Board members like me can't play just an advisory or supporting role! 〆Interests of shareholders cannot be effectively executed ✓ Power and authority should flow through the board before it gets to the CEO → we need to translate expectations into written, comprehensive and concise policy → compliance should be monitored 44 nurtured = cared for and protected while they are growing quarterly earnings pressure = short-term financial performance expectations that prioritise immediate results short-termism = excessive focus on immediate outcomes at the expense of long-term planning cultural transformation = fundamental change in organisational values, behaviours and assumptions founders on the rocks = fails due to encountering unexpected difficulties or obstacles box-ticking exercise = superficial compliance activity performed merely to satisfy requirements policy-practice gap = discrepancy between formal rules or intentions and actual implementation two-tier culture = organisational environment with distinct status and opportunities between employee groups conceptual vocabulary = specialised terminology that enables discussion of abstract ideas blueprint for action = detailed plan or framework that provides specific guidance for implementation collective aspiration = shared ambition or goal that unites a group knowledge worker = employee whose primary contribution involves creating, processing or applying information. These professionals' job is to "think for a living", e.g. programmers, physicians, pharmacists, architects, engineers, scientists, design thinkers, public accountants, lawyers, editors, and academics organisational redundancy = deliberate overlap of information, activities or roles to foster innovation tacit knowledge = intuitive, unwritten understanding that is difficult to formalise or communicate explicit knowledge = knowledge that is codified, documented and easily transferable component technologies = distinct tools or methodologies that together form a comprehensive system mental models = deeply held assumptions and beliefs that influence how individuals understand the world systems thinking = approach that examines interconnections and patterns rather than isolated events intrinsic process = activity that occurs naturally rather than through external direction organic development = growth that emerges naturally rather than being artificially imposed enabling conditions = factors that facilitate rather than directly cause desired outcomes exemplars = outstanding examples that serve as models to be followed bureaucratic inertia = resistance to change arising from established administrative procedures universally replicable = capable of being successfully reproduced in any organisational context perverse incentives = unintended consequences where rules produce undesirable behaviours workforce alienation = employee disengagement resulting from perceived unfairness or exclusion organisational distinctiveness = unique capabilities or characteristics that differentiate a company strategic dilemmas = situations requiring difficult choices between mutually incompatible options operationalisation = process of translating abstract concepts into concrete practices behavioural indicators = observable actions that provide evidence of underlying attitudes or commitments accountability structures = mechanisms ensuring responsibility for achieving specific outcomes stakeholder buy-in = acceptance and support from individuals affected by a change pragmatic approaches = practical methods focused on what works in specific circumstances incremental implementation = gradual introduction of changes rather than immediate transformation perennial = continuing for a very long time; happening again and again strategic alignment = consistency between learning activities and business objectives external validation = independent confirmation of quality and effectiveness measurable outcomes = quantifiable results that demonstrate impact quality standards = specific criteria against which performance is assessed policy-practice gap = discrepancy between formal intentions and actual implementation actionable requirements = specific tasks or conditions that can be implemented stakeholder engagement = involvement of all parties with an interest in outcomes ownership = sense of responsibility and commitment to a programme trade-off decisions = choices involving sacrifice of one benefit for another enterprise-wide capability = organisation-wide skills and competencies continuous improvement = ongoing effort to enhance processes and outcomes operational benefits = practical advantages affecting day-to-day activities panacea = universal remedy or solution organisational commitment = dedication of resources and attention to a priority onerous = burdensome or difficult to sustain peer review = evaluation by qualified professionals from similar organisations benchmarking insights = comparative understanding derived from other organisations' practices internal credibility = trust and respect earned within the organisation resource allocation = distribution of budgets, staff and attention strategic asset = resource that provides competitive advantage organisational maturity = stage of development and sophistication of processes remediation = corrective action to address identified deficiencies quality management tool = systematic framework for maintaining and improving standards strategic positioning = deliberate choice of role and focus within the broader organisational context benchmarking = comparison against recognised best practices or standards self-assessment = internal evaluation against established criteria governance = systems and processes for direction and control accreditation = formal recognition of meeting specified quality standards founders on the rocks = fails due to encountering unexpected difficulties or obstacles conceptual vocabulary = specialised terminology that enables discussion of abstract ideas 43 employees employee (large) company ]]> 20260810 09:00-10:00 MSK 1.5 28 -28 + 16 = -12 active What social contract can support enterprise in the twenty-first century? (3/3) Case study: Vladimirsky Standard meat processing plant suspends operations Role play - Managing past & present workflows Role plays - experience & behavioural questions (2/3) By the end of this session you will have studied Zoom meeting details Meeting ID: 736 3734 5149 Passcode: VhP32d https://us04web.zoom.us/j/73637345149?pwd=9XbxDC1Zm8liOLa6Q1HQRtaqnUaYQS.1 ]]> 42 1 What social contract can support enterprise in the twenty-first century? active wip edit_short_reading_floating prep_short_reading_floating pix/icons8-reading-100_white.png Would adopting a predominantly liberal American-style model resolve Europe's welfare and competitiveness problems? Does the article support the assertion that European welfare systems inevitably undermine entrepreneurship? productive risk-taking = commercial risk capable of creating economic value barriers to entry = obstacles preventing new competitors from entering a market Why does the tax-wedge evidence weaken the draft's original claim about governments taking 40–45% of taxpayers' income? tax wedge = difference between total employer labour cost and employee net income Can strict employment protection simultaneously benefit workers and reduce opportunities for some jobseekers? workforce restructuring = reorganisation of jobs, responsibilities or staffing levels Would adopting a predominantly liberal American-style model resolve Europe's welfare and competitiveness problems? political legitimacy = public acceptance of an institution's authority and decisions Why might a social-investment model strengthen entrepreneurship despite requiring substantial public revenue? human capital = workers' economically valuable knowledge and capabilities crowd out private investment = reduce private investment by absorbing finance or resources Does flexicurity merely transfer commercial risk from companies to employees? flexicurity = policy combining labour-market flexibility with income and employment security portable benefits = employment benefits retained when workers change jobs or status Should governments regard artificial intelligence primarily as a method of cutting welfare-administration costs? administrative overheads = indirect costs of managing an organisation or system double-edged sword = measure producing both beneficial and harmful consequences Can foreign direct investment in neighbouring countries be relied upon to prevent migration towards wealthier welfare states? productive capacity = maximum sustainable output of an economy or organisation What social contract can support enterprise in the twenty-first century? What social contract can support enterprise in the twenty-first century? D.Potter - ChatGPT 20260731

delicate balancing act = difficult attempt to satisfy competing priorities tax wedge = difference between total employer labour cost and employee net income OECD = Economic Co-operation and Development, Organisation, founded in 1961 to stimulate economic progress and world trade. Based in Paris, the OECD serves as a consultative assembly and a clearing house for economic data, and it also coordinates economic aid to developing countries. Its members include Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the U.K., and the U.S productive risk-taking = commercial risk capable of creating economic value social-insurance legislation = laws requiring organised financial protection against social risks red tape = excessive administrative rules and procedures barriers to entry = obstacles preventing new competitors from entering a market change course = adopt a substantially different strategy business dynamism = rate at which firms form, expand, contract and close aggregate demand = total demand for goods and services within an economy crowd out private investment = reduce private investment by absorbing finance or resources flexicurity = policy combining labour-market flexibility with income and employment security portable benefits = employment benefits retained when workers change jobs or status contribution holidays = temporary exemptions from compulsory taxes or social contributions administrative overheads = indirect costs of managing an organisation or system double-edged sword = measure producing both beneficial and harmful consequences human oversight = meaningful supervision and intervention by people fiscal headroom = capacity to spend or borrow without breaching financial constraints

41 2 Debate active edit_ol_qa pix/icons8-collaboration-100_white.png Can you achieve sustainable goals without a spirit of entrepreneurship or public welfare? visual

]]> Can you achieve sustainable goals without a spirit of entrepreneurship or public welfare? Isn't open source development the example of a viable alternative to traditional economic & political models? ✓ encourage open source, voluntary collaboration in the name of individuals' personal satisfaction & altruistic interest ✓ follow examples of governments who show increasing support in times of humanitarian plight, dire straits after earth quakes, wildfire... in other regions plight = difficult and sad situation dire = severe straits = very difficult situation especially because of lack of money 40 balancing act = attempt to satisfy competing priorities tax wedge = difference between total employer labour cost and employee net income OECD = Economic Co-operation and Development, Organisation, founded in 1961 to stimulate economic progress and world trade. Based in Paris, the OECD serves as a consultative assembly and a clearing house for economic data, and it also coordinates economic aid to developing countries. Its members include Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the U.K., and the U.S productive risk-taking = commercial risk capable of creating economic value social-insurance legislation = laws requiring organised financial protection against social risks red tape = excessive administrative rules and procedures barriers to entry = obstacles preventing new competitors from entering a market workforce restructuring = reorganisation of jobs, responsibilities or staffing levels to change course = to adopt a substantially different strategy business dynamism = rate at which firms form, expand, contract and close contractual freedom = ability of parties to negotiate terms with limited state restriction social-investment model = welfare approach prioritising services that improve future productive capacity human capital = workers' economically valuable knowledge and capabilities aggregate demand = total demand for goods and services within an economy to crowd out private investment = to reduce private investment by absorbing finance or resources flexicurity = policy combining labour-market flexibility with income and employment security portable benefits = employment benefits retained when workers change jobs or status transparent employment conditions = clearly communicated and legally identifiable working terms contribution holidays = temporary exemptions from compulsory taxes or social contributions employment status = legal classification governing a person's working relationship one-stop digital systems = integrated platforms through which users complete several procedures to spread risk = to distribute potential costs or losses among several parties administrative overheads = indirect costs of managing an organisation or system double-edged sword = measure producing both beneficial and harmful consequences human oversight = meaningful supervision and intervention by people meaningful appeals = procedures capable of producing genuine reconsideration of decisions political legitimacy = public acceptance of an institution's authority and decisions productive capacity = maximum sustainable output of an economy or organisation fiscal headroom = capacity to spend or borrow without breaching financial constraints geopolitical shocks = disruptive international events affecting security, trade or economic activity social settlement = broadly accepted arrangement governing rights, duties and economic distribution plight = difficult and sad situation dire = severe straits = very difficult situation especially because of lack of money 39 20260807 09:00-10:00 MSK 1.5 28 -28 + 44 = 16 active What social contract can support enterprise in the twenty-first century? (2/3) By the end of this session you will have studied Zoom meeting details Meeting ID: 736 3734 5149 Passcode: VhP32d https://us04web.zoom.us/j/73637345149?pwd=9XbxDC1Zm8liOLa6Q1HQRtaqnUaYQS.1 ]]> 38 1 What social contract can support enterprise in the twenty-first century? active wip edit_short_reading_floating prep_short_reading_floating pix/icons8-reading-100_white.png Would adopting a predominantly liberal American-style model resolve Europe's welfare and competitiveness problems? Does the article support the assertion that European welfare systems inevitably undermine entrepreneurship? productive risk-taking = commercial risk capable of creating economic value barriers to entry = obstacles preventing new competitors from entering a market Why does the tax-wedge evidence weaken the draft's original claim about governments taking 40–45% of taxpayers' income? tax wedge = difference between total employer labour cost and employee net income Can strict employment protection simultaneously benefit workers and reduce opportunities for some jobseekers? workforce restructuring = reorganisation of jobs, responsibilities or staffing levels Would adopting a predominantly liberal American-style model resolve Europe's welfare and competitiveness problems? political legitimacy = public acceptance of an institution's authority and decisions Why might a social-investment model strengthen entrepreneurship despite requiring substantial public revenue? human capital = workers' economically valuable knowledge and capabilities crowd out private investment = reduce private investment by absorbing finance or resources Does flexicurity merely transfer commercial risk from companies to employees? flexicurity = policy combining labour-market flexibility with income and employment security portable benefits = employment benefits retained when workers change jobs or status Should governments regard artificial intelligence primarily as a method of cutting welfare-administration costs? administrative overheads = indirect costs of managing an organisation or system double-edged sword = measure producing both beneficial and harmful consequences Can foreign direct investment in neighbouring countries be relied upon to prevent migration towards wealthier welfare states? productive capacity = maximum sustainable output of an economy or organisation What social contract can support enterprise in the twenty-first century? What social contract can support enterprise in the twenty-first century? D.Potter - ChatGPT 20260731

37 balancing act = attempt to satisfy competing priorities tax wedge = difference between total employer labour cost and employee net income OECD = Economic Co-operation and Development, Organisation, founded in 1961 to stimulate economic progress and world trade. Based in Paris, the OECD serves as a consultative assembly and a clearing house for economic data, and it also coordinates economic aid to developing countries. Its members include Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the U.K., and the U.S productive risk-taking = commercial risk capable of creating economic value social-insurance legislation = laws requiring organised financial protection against social risks red tape = excessive administrative rules and procedures barriers to entry = obstacles preventing new competitors from entering a market workforce restructuring = reorganisation of jobs, responsibilities or staffing levels to change course = to adopt a substantially different strategy business dynamism = rate at which firms form, expand, contract and close contractual freedom = ability of parties to negotiate terms with limited state restriction social-investment model = welfare approach prioritising services that improve future productive capacity human capital = workers' economically valuable knowledge and capabilities aggregate demand = total demand for goods and services within an economy to crowd out private investment = to reduce private investment by absorbing finance or resources flexicurity = policy combining labour-market flexibility with income and employment security portable benefits = employment benefits retained when workers change jobs or status transparent employment conditions = clearly communicated and legally identifiable working terms contribution holidays = temporary exemptions from compulsory taxes or social contributions employment status = legal classification governing a person's working relationship one-stop digital systems = integrated platforms through which users complete several procedures to spread risk = to distribute potential costs or losses among several parties administrative overheads = indirect costs of managing an organisation or system double-edged sword = measure producing both beneficial and harmful consequences human oversight = meaningful supervision and intervention by people meaningful appeals = procedures capable of producing genuine reconsideration of decisions political legitimacy = public acceptance of an institution's authority and decisions productive capacity = maximum sustainable output of an economy or organisation fiscal headroom = capacity to spend or borrow without breaching financial constraints geopolitical shocks = disruptive international events affecting security, trade or economic activity social settlement = broadly accepted arrangement governing rights, duties and economic distribution 36 Despite of (Despite | In spite of) Unlike Serbia, Russia still has Burger King If you are not capable ~~to take~~ of taking care of yourself, then natural selection should... ]]> 20260803 09:00-10:00 MSK 1.5 28 -28 + 72 = 44 active How Spain's migrant crisis created a political storm - whipped up by social media By the end of this session you will have studied Zoom meeting details Meeting ID: 736 3734 5149 Passcode: VhP32d https://us04web.zoom.us/j/73637345149?pwd=9XbxDC1Zm8liOLa6Q1HQRtaqnUaYQS.1 ]]> 35 How Spain's migrant crisis created a political storm - whipped up by social media active 1 textbook https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62vl925dqdo ]]> 34 to whip = to hit a person or an animal hard with a whip, as a punishment or to make them go faster or work harder; to move, or make sth move, quickly and suddenly or violently in a particular direction; to remove or pull sth quickly and suddenly; ~ sth (up) to stir cream, etc. very quickly until it becomes stiff; (BrE, informal) to steal sth; to whip through sth (informal) - to do or finish sth very quickly; to whip sb/sth up - to deliberately try and make people excited or feel strongly about sth to exacerbate /eksˈæsə:beɪt/ = to make sth worse, especially a disease or problem 33 20260730 09:00-10:00 MSK 1.5 28 -28 + 84 = 72 active What social contract can support enterprise in the twenty-first century? (1/3) By the end of this session you will have studied Zoom meeting details Meeting ID: 736 3734 5149 Passcode: VhP32d https://us04web.zoom.us/j/73637345149?pwd=9XbxDC1Zm8liOLa6Q1HQRtaqnUaYQS.1 ]]> 32 1 What social contract can support enterprise in the twenty-first century? active wip edit_short_reading_floating prep_short_reading_floating pix/icons8-reading-100_white.png Would adopting a predominantly liberal American-style model resolve Europe's welfare and competitiveness problems? Does the article support the assertion that European welfare systems inevitably undermine entrepreneurship? productive risk-taking = commercial risk capable of creating economic value barriers to entry = obstacles preventing new competitors from entering a market Why does the tax-wedge evidence weaken the draft's original claim about governments taking 40–45% of taxpayers' income? tax wedge = difference between total employer labour cost and employee net income Can strict employment protection simultaneously benefit workers and reduce opportunities for some jobseekers? workforce restructuring = reorganisation of jobs, responsibilities or staffing levels Would adopting a predominantly liberal American-style model resolve Europe's welfare and competitiveness problems? political legitimacy = public acceptance of an institution's authority and decisions Why might a social-investment model strengthen entrepreneurship despite requiring substantial public revenue? human capital = workers' economically valuable knowledge and capabilities crowd out private investment = reduce private investment by absorbing finance or resources Does flexicurity merely transfer commercial risk from companies to employees? flexicurity = policy combining labour-market flexibility with income and employment security portable benefits = employment benefits retained when workers change jobs or status Should governments regard artificial intelligence primarily as a method of cutting welfare-administration costs? administrative overheads = indirect costs of managing an organisation or system double-edged sword = measure producing both beneficial and harmful consequences Can foreign direct investment in neighbouring countries be relied upon to prevent migration towards wealthier welfare states? productive capacity = maximum sustainable output of an economy or organisation What social contract can support enterprise in the twenty-first century? What social contract can support enterprise in the twenty-first century? D.Potter - ChatGPT 20260731

31 balancing act = attempt to satisfy competing priorities tax wedge = difference between total employer labour cost and employee net income OECD = Economic Co-operation and Development, Organisation, founded in 1961 to stimulate economic progress and world trade. Based in Paris, the OECD serves as a consultative assembly and a clearing house for economic data, and it also coordinates economic aid to developing countries. Its members include Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the U.K., and the U.S productive risk-taking = commercial risk capable of creating economic value social-insurance legislation = laws requiring organised financial protection against social risks red tape = excessive administrative rules and procedures barriers to entry = obstacles preventing new competitors from entering a market workforce restructuring = reorganisation of jobs, responsibilities or staffing levels to change course = to adopt a substantially different strategy business dynamism = rate at which firms form, expand, contract and close contractual freedom = ability of parties to negotiate terms with limited state restriction social-investment model = welfare approach prioritising services that improve future productive capacity human capital = workers' economically valuable knowledge and capabilities aggregate demand = total demand for goods and services within an economy to crowd out private investment = to reduce private investment by absorbing finance or resources flexicurity = policy combining labour-market flexibility with income and employment security portable benefits = employment benefits retained when workers change jobs or status transparent employment conditions = clearly communicated and legally identifiable working terms contribution holidays = temporary exemptions from compulsory taxes or social contributions employment status = legal classification governing a person's working relationship one-stop digital systems = integrated platforms through which users complete several procedures to spread risk = to distribute potential costs or losses among several parties administrative overheads = indirect costs of managing an organisation or system double-edged sword = measure producing both beneficial and harmful consequences human oversight = meaningful supervision and intervention by people meaningful appeals = procedures capable of producing genuine reconsideration of decisions political legitimacy = public acceptance of an institution's authority and decisions productive capacity = maximum sustainable output of an economy or organisation fiscal headroom = capacity to spend or borrow without breaching financial constraints geopolitical shocks = disruptive international events affecting security, trade or economic activity social settlement = broadly accepted arrangement governing rights, duties and economic distribution 30 in with any ~~punishments~~ legal offences... ]]> 20260727 09:00-10:00 MSK 1.5 28 -28 + 112 = 84 active Role play - Turning up trumps to achieve a deal Role plays - experience & behavioural questions (2/3) By the end of this session you will have studied Zoom meeting details Meeting ID: 736 3734 5149 Passcode: VhP32d https://us04web.zoom.us/j/73637345149?pwd=9XbxDC1Zm8liOLa6Q1HQRtaqnUaYQS.1 ]]> 29 4 Role play - Turning up trumps to achieve a deal role_play active Recycle new expressions and language. Keep an ace up your sleeve! Don't put all your cards on the table right from the start. → you want to turn up trumps = do what is necessary to make a particular situation successful ]]> ✓ set objectives ✓ explore positions (→ active listening) ✓ establish common goals ✓ make an offer ✓ use 'if' + 2nd conditional ✓ make concessions & compromise ✓ review, double-check you understand ✓ accept the deal ✓ reach an agreement ✓ follow up the deal ✓ keep the conversation open Don't put the cart before the horses! ]]> I'll go along with... ✓ disagree with some objectives 〆stall for time and/or defer decision 〆refuse a few offers ✓ use 'if' + 1st conditional 〆don't compromise → demand concessions ✓ reach an agreement ✓ follow up the deal 28 to turn|come up trumps = to complete an activity successfully or to produce a good result, especially when you were not expected to. Comes from card games (like Whist or Bridge). A "trump" card is one that beats all other suits. Having a trump card revealed or dealt to you means sudden good fortune and a strong chance of winning the hand 27 crediting ourselves taking out a loan Let me check if an ~~outsourcing lawyer company~~ outsourced legal firm | consultant could advise us ]]> 20260717 09:00-10:00 MSK 1.5 28 -28 + 140 = 112 active Role plays - Describing hypothetical results (2/2) Role play - Turning up trumps to achieve a deal Role plays - experience & behavioural questions (2/3) By the end of this session you will have studied Zoom meeting details Meeting ID: 736 3734 5149 Passcode: VhP32d https://us04web.zoom.us/j/73637345149?pwd=9XbxDC1Zm8liOLa6Q1HQRtaqnUaYQS.1 ]]> 26 20260713-0954 Would rather + past simple vs past perfect active grammar 2 different subjects in main & subordinate clauses I'd rather + subordinate clause with past simple ← hypothetical situation in the future I'd rather + subordinate clause with past perfect ← hypothetical situation / regret in the past ]]> 25 2 Role play (mixed conditionals) Describing hypothetical results from the past and now (mixed conditionals) active role_play Recycle new expressions and language. You have been working on an important project 6 months - with no results. You now regret your boss hadn't told you not only what to achieve, but also how to achieve your objectives. Complain to your boss. Ask for more support. 〆unclear objectives 〆urgent tasks 〆not enough AI tokens for developers 〆recruited not sufficiently qualified staff If you gave me more clear tasks at our weekly briefings I wouldn't have chosen the wrong solution. (mixed conditional type 1) I wouldn't be late now if you had told me exactly what you wanted from me! (mixed conditional type 2) If I had known about this solution earlier I would now be able to finish our current project on time.(mixed conditional type 2) Had we known some of our team members aren't experienced enough to deal with given tasks, we wouldn't have wasted precious weeks on tasks beyond their qualifications. If I were part of the management team I would have had a deeper understanding of the end result and required skills. If I hadn't been distracted by urgent tasks I could have completed all tasks in due time. If we weren't undermanned, we could have addressed all issues! Had developers been allowed more tokens to leverage AI we could have patched bugs faster... Had you recruited developers who can really write code without AI assistance, we could have reduced our time to market! You are not satisfied by the work completed by your team member. You think he/she has wasted time experimenting different solutions instead of getting the job done. If you hadn't tried different solutions you wouldn't be late now (mixed conditional type 2) If I had thought you were not competent enough I wouldn't have assigned you this task in the first place! (mixed conditional type 1) If you had better time management skills you would have completed all additional tasks on time (mixed conditional type 2) If we recruited more staff, would you have been able to achieve your KPIs? If you'd been included in the recruiting process, would you have been able to spot weaker candidates? Had you been communicating more regularly with your team members, we could have addressed the scope of responsibilities of each and every person earlier. Would you have dealt with all those glitches if AI tokens hadn't been a bottleneck for developers in the first place? Would our company be more profitable if we'd taken up fewer projects without recruiting more staff or relying on AI? Are you saying we could have slashed time to market if we hadn't been using AI?! 24 undermanned = not having enough workers, staff, or crew members to operate effectively. An undermanned organisation, department, or ship struggles to function properly because it lacks the requisite number of personnel to handle its workload 23 20260713 09:00-10:00 MSK 1.5 28 -28 + 168 = 140 active Would rather (reminder) | Role plays - Describing hypothetical results (1/2) By the end of this session you will have studied Zoom meeting details Meeting ID: 736 3734 5149 Passcode: VhP32d https://us04web.zoom.us/j/73637345149?pwd=9XbxDC1Zm8liOLa6Q1HQRtaqnUaYQS.1 ]]> 22 20250925-1054 20200214-1824 Would rather + past simple active grammar 21 20260713-0954 Would rather + past simple vs past perfect active grammar 2 different subjects in main & subordinate clauses I'd rather + subordinate clause with past simple ← hypothetical situation in the future I'd rather + subordinate clause with past perfect ← hypothetical situation / regret in the past ]]> 20 2 Role play (mixed conditionals) Describing hypothetical results from the past and now (mixed conditionals) active role_play Recycle new expressions and language. You have been working on an important project 6 months - with no results. You now regret your boss hadn't told you not only what to achieve, but also how to achieve your objectives. Complain to your boss. Ask for more support. 〆unclear objectives 〆urgent tasks 〆not enough AI tokens for developers 〆recruited not sufficiently qualified staff If you gave me more clear tasks at our weekly briefings I wouldn't have chosen the wrong solution. (mixed conditional type 1) I wouldn't be late now if you had told me exactly what you wanted from me! (mixed conditional type 2) If I had known about this solution earlier I would now be able to finish our current project on time.(mixed conditional type 2) If I hadn't been distracted by urgent tasks I could have completed all tasks in due time. If we weren't undermanned, we could have addressed all issues! Had developers been allowed more tokens to leverage AI we could have patched bugs faster... Had you recruited developers who can really write code without AI assistance, we could have reduced our time to market! You are not satisfied by the work completed by your team member. You think he/she has wasted time experimenting different solutions instead of getting the job done. If you hadn't tried different solutions you wouldn't be late now (mixed conditional type 2) If I had thought you were not competent enough I wouldn't have assigned you this task in the first place! (mixed conditional type 1) If you had better time management skills you would have completed all additional tasks on time (mixed conditional type 2) If we recruited more staff, would you have been able to achieve your KPIs? Would you have dealt with all those glitches if AI tokens hadn't been a bottleneck for developers in the first place? Would our company be more profitable if we'd taken up fewer projects without recruiting more staff or relying on AI? Are you saying we could have slashed time to market if we hadn't been using AI?! 19 undermanned = not having enough workers, staff, or crew members to operate effectively. An undermanned organisation, department, or ship struggles to function properly because it lacks the requisite number of personnel to handle its workload 18 no not such a big difference ]]> 20260706 09:00-10:00 MSK 1.5 28 -28 + 196 = 168 active How do geopolitics influence a country's economic & military role? (2/2) By the end of this session you will have studied Zoom meeting details Meeting ID: 736 3734 5149 Passcode: VhP32d https://us04web.zoom.us/j/73637345149?pwd=9XbxDC1Zm8liOLa6Q1HQRtaqnUaYQS.1 ]]> 17 1 Geopolitical dynamics and national power active wip edit_short_reading_floating prep_short_reading_floating pix/icons8-reading-100_white.png How might excessive military expenditure affect a nation's long-term development? crowd out = displace or reduce available funds What role do strategic trade corridors play in a country's geopolitical influence? bargaining power = leverage in negotiations Are economic sanctions always detrimental to the targeted country? detrimental = harmful FDI (foreign direct investment) = cross-border capital investment Is military expenditure always a wise investment for national security? crowd out = displace or reduce available funds Do geopolitical threats exclusively drive defence innovation? defence budgets = government spending on military cybersecurity = protection of digital systems Geopolitical dynamics and national power Geopolitical dynamics and national power D.Potter - DeepSeek 20260703 ictnle.com

rivalries = state in which two people, companies, etc. are competing for the same thing posture = attitude to a particular situation or the way in which you deal with it spur = to encourage sb to do sth or to encourage them to try harder to achieve sth conversely = in a way that is the opposite or reverse of sth bargaining power = leverage in negotiations economic sanctions = punitive trade restrictions tariff barriers = taxes on imports foreign direct investment = cross-border capital investment defence budgets = government spending on military cybersecurity = protection of digital systems economic statecraft = use of economic tools for foreign policy to deter = to make sb decide not to do sth or continue doing sth, especially by making them understand the difficulties and unpleasant results of their actions hard power = military or coercive force supply chains = networks of production and distribution geopolitical calculus = strategic assessment of global factors strategic influence = capacity to shape outcomes internationally crowd out = displace or reduce available funds military posture = defensive or offensive stance choke points = geographical, technological, or systemic bottleneck that restricts the smooth flow of traffic, trade, or data. Because traffic must consolidate into a narrow channel, these points create severe congestion and grant significant leverage to whoever controls or defends them jeopardise = to risk harming or destroying sth/sb stunted = that has not been able to grow or develop as much as it should lest = in order to prevent sth from happening; in case

16 rivalry = state in which two people, companies, etc. are competing for the same thing posture = attitude to a particular situation or the way in which you deal with it to spur = to encourage sb to do sth or to encourage them to try harder to achieve sth conversely = in a way that is the opposite or reverse of sth bargaining power = leverage in negotiations economic sanctions = punitive trade restrictions tariff barriers = taxes on imports foreign direct investment = cross-border capital investment defence budgets = government spending on military cybersecurity = protection of digital systems economic statecraft = use of economic tools for foreign policy to deter = to make sb decide not to do sth or continue doing sth, especially by making them understand the difficulties and unpleasant results of their actions hard power = military or coercive force supply chains = networks of production and distribution geopolitical calculus = strategic assessment of global factors strategic influence = capacity to shape outcomes internationally to crowd out = to displace or reduce available funds military posture = defensive or offensive stance strategic trade corridors = key routes for commerce and energy industrial growth = expansion of manufacturing output long-term vulnerabilities = weaknesses that persist over time military assertiveness = readiness to use force missteps = errors in judgement or action financial stability = soundness of a country's monetary system choke point = geographical, technological, or systemic bottleneck that restricts the smooth flow of traffic, trade, or data. Because traffic must consolidate into a narrow channel, these points create severe congestion and grant significant leverage to whoever controls or defends them to jeopardise = to risk harming or destroying sth/sb stunted = that has not been able to grow or develop as much as it should lest = in order to prevent sth from happening; in case 15 reveals is revealed | happens | crops up because of ... There is a maximum of ~~gas~~ (=AmEn) petrol ~~demanding~~ in demand ~~Westerns~~ Westerners always lose to ~~Easterns~~ Easterners ]]> 20260629 09:00-10:00 MSK 1.5 28 -28 + 224 = 196 active How do geopolitics influence a country's economic & military role? (1/2) By the end of this session you will have studied Zoom meeting details Meeting ID: 736 3734 5149 Passcode: VhP32d https://us04web.zoom.us/j/73637345149?pwd=9XbxDC1Zm8liOLa6Q1HQRtaqnUaYQS.1 ]]> 14 1 Geopolitical dynamics and national power active wip edit_short_reading_floating prep_short_reading_floating pix/icons8-reading-100_white.png How might excessive military expenditure affect a nation's long-term development? crowd out = displace or reduce available funds What role do strategic trade corridors play in a country's geopolitical influence? bargaining power = leverage in negotiations Are economic sanctions always detrimental to the targeted country? detrimental = harmful FDI (foreign direct investment) = cross-border capital investment Is military expenditure always a wise investment for national security? crowd out = displace or reduce available funds Do geopolitical threats exclusively drive defence innovation? defence budgets = government spending on military cybersecurity = protection of digital systems Geopolitical dynamics and national power Geopolitical dynamics and national power D.Potter - DeepSeek 20260703 ictnle.com

13 rivalry = state in which two people, companies, etc. are competing for the same thing posture = attitude to a particular situation or the way in which you deal with it to spur = to encourage sb to do sth or to encourage them to try harder to achieve sth conversely = in a way that is the opposite or reverse of sth bargaining power = leverage in negotiations economic sanctions = punitive trade restrictions tariff barriers = taxes on imports foreign direct investment = cross-border capital investment defence budgets = government spending on military cybersecurity = protection of digital systems economic statecraft = use of economic tools for foreign policy to deter = to make sb decide not to do sth or continue doing sth, especially by making them understand the difficulties and unpleasant results of their actions hard power = military or coercive force supply chains = networks of production and distribution geopolitical calculus = strategic assessment of global factors strategic influence = capacity to shape outcomes internationally to crowd out = to displace or reduce available funds military posture = defensive or offensive stance strategic trade corridors = key routes for commerce and energy industrial growth = expansion of manufacturing output long-term vulnerabilities = weaknesses that persist over time military assertiveness = readiness to use force missteps = errors in judgement or action financial stability = soundness of a country's monetary system choke point = geographical, technological, or systemic bottleneck that restricts the smooth flow of traffic, trade, or data. Because traffic must consolidate into a narrow channel, these points create severe congestion and grant significant leverage to whoever controls or defends them to jeopardise = to risk harming or destroying sth/sb stunted = that has not been able to grow or develop as much as it should lest = in order to prevent sth from happening; in case 12 reveals is revealed | happens | crops up because of ... There is a maximum of ~~gas~~ (=AmEn) petrol ~~demanding~~ in demand ~~Westerns~~ Westerners always lose to ~~Easterns~~ Easterners ]]> 20260626 09:00-10:00 MSK 1.5 28 -28 + 252 = 224 active Educational systems & exams concordances (YLE, IGCSE, A-levels, IB) By the end of this session you will have studied Zoom meeting details Meeting ID: 736 3734 5149 Passcode: VhP32d https://us04web.zoom.us/j/73637345149?pwd=9XbxDC1Zm8liOLa6Q1HQRtaqnUaYQS.1 ]]> 11 YLE levels per age groups active 1 textbook https://www.cambridgeenglish.org/exams-and-tests/qualifications/key/ B1 Preliminary for Schools https://www.cambridgeenglish.org/exams-and-tests/qualifications/preliminary/ B2 First for Schools https://www.cambridgeenglish.org/exams-and-tests/qualifications/first/

]]> 10 EF language competency profile - Business English 1-16 active tmp_pdf/ef_language_competency_profile_business_english_levels_1-16_overview.pdf 1 textbook 9 O-levels, IGCSE active 1 textbook visual

CEFR levels IGCSE EL2 per skill ]]> 8 A-levels, IB active 1 textbook 7 EF levels per hours active 1 textbook visual

]]> 6 Cambridge English Exams - scale score active 1 textbook visual

src: https://www.cambridgeenglish.org/exams-and-tests/cambridge-english-scale/

]]> 5 4 20260622 09:00-10:00 MSK 1.5 28 -28 + 280 = 252 active Role plays - experience & behavioural questions (1/2) Role plays - Negotiating salary & compensation package By the end of this session you will have studied Zoom meeting details Meeting ID: 736 3734 5149 Passcode: VhP32d https://us04web.zoom.us/j/73637345149?pwd=9XbxDC1Zm8liOLa6Q1HQRtaqnUaYQS.1 ]]> 3 2 Role play - Negotiating salary & compensation package 20231103 hw20231110 active role_play Recycle new expressions and language. ✓ If you give me your best offer, I'll give you my best consideration → never give exact figures ]]> You are a head hunter. You've spent many months trying to find the ideal candidate for a big tech. You are impressed by the CV & want to make a compelling offer. 150 000 yearly base salary 10 000 compensation for loss of earnings from current employer (e.g. bonus) 8 000 relocation package 1200 expat bonus 600 language courses 50 school books 8000+1200+600+50 = 9850 total year 1 150 000 + 10 000 + 9 850 = 169 850 Perks - to be negotiated 2/2 150 000 yearly base salary 0 relocation package 9350 expat bonus 600 language courses 50 school books 9350+600+50 = 10 000 total year 2-4 150 000 + 10 000 = 160 000 Additional financial incentives (RSU) 18 000 restricted stock units (4 years) Total compensation 18 000 RSU total year 1 150 000 + 9 850 + 18 000 = 177 550 total year 2-4 150 000 + 10 000 + 18 000 = 178 000 HH confidential details for negotiation 150 000 base salary + 30% perks = 45 000 --------------------- max available 200 000 total compensation ]]> A head hunter has contacted you to make an offer after you'd submitted your CV. This is not your dream job but you want to keep all options in your pocket. Stall for time (the interview for your dream job is in 2 weeks!). Negotiate terms: ask for more holidays, relocation package... ✓ I'm afraid I already have some very competitive offers. ✓ I don't feel comfortable enough to share these figures with you because it is confidential. ✓ I can't give you more details but I can say that if you increased at least the base salary / compensation package / equity... I'd be happy to reconsider your offer. 2 to turn|come up trumps = to complete an activity successfully or to produce a good result, especially when you were not expected to. Comes from card games (like Whist or Bridge). A "trump" card is one that beats all other suits. Having a trump card revealed or dealt to you means sudden good fortune and a strong chance of winning the hand to quibble about / over sth = to argue or complain about a small matter or an unimportant detail wiggle room = ability to make small changes in a plan, schedule, etc., if they are needed room for manoeuvre = chance to change the way that sth happens and influence decisions that are made greedy for sth = wanting more money, power, food, etc. than you really need to discard = to get rid of sth that you no longer want or need diligent = showing care and effort in your work or duties RSU = restricted stock units resort = last course of action that you should or can take in a particular situation low-ball offer (AmEn) = slang term for an offer that is significantly below the seller's asking price, or a quote that is deliberately lower than the price the seller intends to charge. To lowball also means to deliberately give a false estimate for something to bump an offer = to enter into a contract with a buyer but continue to market the property. If the seller then receives a better offer, they can bump the original buyer to get them to waive their contingency or offer more 1 in the war ]]>